The Heat made some impressive adjustments in Game 2, but more importantly, recaptured their red-hot shooting that’s carried them through the postseason to tie the NBA Finals at a game a piece. After being called out for their effort in the loss, now it’s the Nuggets’ turn to adjust and attempt to win on the road. Let’s breakdown some betting angles on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat
Nuggets 1H ML (-130) — 1-unit
I like this play from both a numbers and “spot” standpoint. Denver’s been a terrific first half team in the postseason, while Miami is actually a negative in the first three quarters of games, but has been winning by dominating fourth quarters. The Nuggets won the first half in Game 1 by 17 points, and then led by six at halftime in Game 2.
While the scene shifts to Miami, Denver was just called out by its coach for lack of effort in Game 2. I think that should keep them much sharper here in Game 3, with a particular focus on starting strong after being chewed out like that. I’d also expect the Nuggets to make some adjustments following the loss, which generally favors the team coming off a loss early in the following game.
1H UNDER 110 (-120) — 1-unit
Other than taking a side in the first half of this one, I also think the total is showing some value. We saw Game 1 stay well under at 101 points in the first half, and then Game 2 even managed to stay under at 108, despite some fantastic offense. Miami was lights out from the field, particularly early from downtown, and then the Nuggets ripped off 34 points in their second-quarter comeback.
It’s tough to see their being even more offense in the first half of this game, particularly following the callout of Denver’s effort. The Nuggets were falling on their faces defensively in Game 2, leaving shooters wide open. I expect that to be the focus of their adjustments, and lead to less clean looks for the Heat from downtown at the start of this game. Meanwhile, the Nuggets thrive offensively at home. They’ve generally slowed down a bit on the road, which should also factor in here for a couple less points.
Michael Porter Jr. OVER 21.5 Points + Rebounds (-125) — 1-unit
Porter Jr. was horrendous in Game 2, and was almost certainly one of the primary players Michael Malone was addressing when he spoke about the teams’ lack of effort. MPJ was benched at times during the game, playing just 26 minutes, shooting just 2-for-8. He finished with five points and six boards.
Prior to the dud, Porter Jr. had gone over this mark in seven of his last nine games, including 14 points and 13 rebounds in Game 1 of the NBA Finals (playing 43 minutes). I expect a bounce-back from MPJ shooting the ball, which should keep him on the floor. The effort callout should also keep him active, which is enough reason for me to add in his rebounds here. If he’s shooting and defending, we should see much closer to 43 minutes here than 26, which gives MPJ a strong shot at cashing his over.
Kevin Love OVER 10.5 Points + Rebounds (-125) — 1-unit
One of Miami’s adjustments in Game 2 was putting Kevin Love back into the starting lineup. Caleb Martin’s struggles helped make the decision easier, but Miami’s lack of size was really the issue here. While Love might not play big minutes or finish games, his efforts to start the game and second half really helped spark the Heat at times.
Love played 22 minutes in Game 2, and was terrible shooting the ball — 2-for-9 from the field. That said, he managed six points and 10 boards to easily cash the over on this number, and it wouldn’t have even been close if he knocked down a couple more shots. If Love gets another 20-plus minutes here, he should be capable of clearing this bar again.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.