Here are my favorite bets available on DraftKings Sportsbook for Wednesday’s MLB slate.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Jon Gray’s season-long 4.43 FIP indicates his 2.51 ERA is due to increase, but he’s only gotten better since the start of May. Over his last six starts, Gray has a 1.60 ERA and 3.56 FIP. That’s plenty of support for one of the best lineups against right-handed pitching.
Since mid-May, Texas has a .202 ISO against righties — and that’s not the only number that indicates the Rangers are seeing the ball well against right-handers. They have a 39.5% hard-contact rate and 24% line drive rate against righties since May 17. They’ll face a quality right-hander in Jack Flaherty, who’s turned a corner in his last two starts.
But even in those outings, hitters posted a 30% line-drive rate and a sub-20% strikeout rate against Flaherty. The Rangers don’t strike out much against righties as it is, and now they’re facing a pitcher who generates a lot of batted-ball events? That sounds like a recipe for disaster for St. Louis.
This number is fair, but it’s still a bit surprising with what Barria has done this season. In his two starts, he’s logged six punchouts over five innings. He threw 90 pitches in the second outing, but he only needed 64 to log six K’s vs. the Red Sox on May 22.
On top of the low pitch count, Boston was a middling lineup in terms of strikeout rate against right-handed pitching throughout May. The Cubs, on the other hand, had the second-highest strikeout rate against righties in May (27.3%). And that number wasn’t ballooned by a rough stretch early in the month. Since May 21, the Cubs have a 28.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.