We have another full slate of baseball on tap for Tuesday, with all 30 teams scheduled to take the field. That includes a 12-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into three of my favorite wagers on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s slate.
Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians:
The Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (-110)
Tuesday’s matchup between the Red Sox and Guardians pits a pair of big-name pitchers against each other. James Paxton will get the ball for Boston, while the Guardians will counter with Shane Bieber. Bieber won the AL Cy Young award in 2020, while Paxton has been a frontline starter for nearly a decade. Unfortunately, neither player has aged particularly gracefully, and both starters have battled injuries over the past few seasons.
On the surface, Bieber is having a better year than Paxton. He’s pitched to a 3.72 ERA across 12 starts, resulting in a 4-3 record. However, his advanced metrics aren’t nearly as pretty. He owns a 4.89 xERA, and he’s striking out just 6.36 batters per nine innings. That’s roughly 2.5 fewer strikeouts per nine innings than he averaged last season, and it’s less than half of what he averaged during his Cy Young-winning campaign.
Paxton has made just four starts for the Red Sox, but he’s still striking batters out at an elite clip. He’s racked up a 12.79 K/9 to start the year, which gives some optimism about his outlook moving forward. He’s also posted an average fastball velocity of 96.3 miles per hour, his highest figure since 2016.
Ultimately, I give the Red Sox an edge on the mound, and they have a pretty massive edge offensively. Cleveland has been one of the worst squads in the league at scoring runs, and they rank just 28th in wRC+ vs. Southpaws. Boston ranks ninth in wRC+ against right-handers, and they’re fourth in the league in runs per game.
Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays:
The Pick: Under 8.0 runs (-125)
Kevin Gausman will get the ball for Toronto, and he’s one of the most underrated starters in baseball. He’s on pace for the best season of his career in 2023, posting a 12.0 K/9 and a 2.76 ERA through his first 12 outings. He’s done that despite a .333 batting average on balls in play, so he’s arguably been a bit unlucky. Overall, his 2.38 FIP is the second-best mark among qualified starters, trailing only Zac Gallen.
Hunter Brown doesn’t have the same track record of success as Gausman, but what we’ve seen from him has been incredibly promising. He’s pitched to a 3.61 ERA and a 2.90 FIP across 11 starts this season, and he had a 0.89 ERA over 20 1/3 innings in 2022. Brown is averaging more than 10 strikeouts per nine innings and has excelled at keeping the ball in the yard, and his pedigree suggests he can continue to produce at a high level.
This total is likely headed to 7.5, so let’s grab the under on 8.0 while we still can.
Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres:
The Pick: Mariners Moneyline (+115)
This is another spot where I think the wrong team is favored. The Mariners will send Logan Gilbert to the bump, and he’s one of the better young pitchers in baseball. His ERA has dipped from 3.20 in 2022 to 4.08 this season, but his advanced metrics have all gotten significantly better. He’s averaging nearly two additional strikeouts per nine innings, and his xERA has dipped by more than a full run. He stands out as a major progression candidate moving forward.
Joe Musgrove is no slouch for the Padres, but his advanced marks aren’t nearly as impressive as Gilbert’s. His K/9 is down to just 8.42 this season, his lowest mark since 2019. He’s also pitched to a 4.71 ERA and FIP, albeit over a smaller sample size.
Offensively, there’s not much separating these two squads. The Padres have far more star power in their lineup, but they still rank just 22nd in wRC+ vs. right-handers for the year. They have improved slightly since getting Fernando Tatis Jr. back in the lineup, but they’re still just 16th in that split over the past two weeks.
Seattle’s offense is far from a juggernaut, but they’ve been slightly better against right-handers over the course of the season. Add it all up, and there’s enough to support the Mariners as small underdogs.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.