NBA Best Bets: NBA Finals Picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Heat vs. Nuggets Game 2

After what seems like forever, the NBA Finals will resume on Sunday with Game 2. The Nuggets showed very little signs of rust after more than a week off, cruising to a comfortable win over the Heat. However, Miami has shown no fear all postseason, so they certainly won’t sweat an 0-1 series deficit in the Finals. They are truly the final villain in every horror movie ever; you don’t stop shooting until they’re officially dead and buried.

Let’s dive into three of my favorite wagers on DraftKings Sportsbook for Game 2.

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Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets:

Nuggets -8.5 (-110)

The Nuggets pretty thoroughly dominated in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, racing out to a 17-point lead at halftime. The Heat were able to make things interesting in the fourth quarter, but the lead never got to less than nine points.

The formula for the Heat this postseason has been pretty simple: They win when they shoot the ball well from the perimeter and lose when they don’t. They were merely average from 3-point range in Game 1, knocking down 33.3% of their attempts, and they weren’t able to keep up with the Nuggets.

While there’s always the chance that the Heat could shoot the ball better in Game 2, the Nuggets also have plenty of room for improvement. They shot a worse percentage from 3-point range than the Heat did in Game 1, and they were the superior 3-point shooting team during the regular season. Overall, the Nuggets had roughly a B game offensively by their lofty standards, and it was still good enough to steamroll Miami. That should be a major concern moving forward.

While we have seen Miami go toe-to-toe with the Celtics and Bucks, the Nuggets are not going to back down in the same way. Nikola Jokic has seemed unflappable during the postseason, while Jamal Murray is playing some of the best basketball of his career. Add in the Nuggets' dominant homecourt advantage – 25-15-1 ATS during the regular season, 6-3 during the playoffs – and this could be another non-competitive contest.

Nuggets series spread -2.5 games (-120)

Even if the Nuggets don’t cover in Game 2, I have a hard time believing that they’ll lose the game outright. They’ve yet to lose at home during the postseason, and they’re simply the better team. Don’t forget that Miami was the worst of all the playoff and play-in squads in terms of Net Rating during the regular season. They’ve displayed additional gears during the playoffs but this team is still at a significant talent disadvantage. That’s especially true with Tyler Herro still sidelined and Caleb Martin questionable with an illness.

If the Nuggets can record another win in Game 2, I don’t think it’s a stretch to think this series ends in five games or fewer. All they would need to do is split in Miami and then take care of business in a Game 5 back in Denver. Again, the Nuggets have yet to lose at home during the postseason, and they’ve played significantly tougher competition in teams like the Suns and Lakers.

This series spread was available at better than even money before the start of the series, but I still think it’s playable at -120. I prefer the -2.5 games instead of an exact outcome since it covers the two most likely results in my eyes: the Nuggets in five games and a Nuggets sweep.

Michael Porter Jr. to record a double-double (+200)

Porter has taken a backseat to Jokic and Murray as a scorer during the postseason. His usage rate has dipped to just 16.9% after sitting at 22.7% during the regular season, so he’s commanded far fewer shot attempts than usual.

That said, Porter is still a very capable scorer. He’s shooting just under 40% from 3-point range during the postseason, and he’s double-digit points in all but two contests. One of them was a blowout win where he played just 23.3 minutes, so he’s only been held to single digits in one game with his usual allotment of playing time.

Essentially, this bet comes down to whether or not you think Porter can get to double-digit rebounds. MPJ is not exactly known for his work on the glass, but as Andrew Wiggins did for the Warriors last postseason, Porter has shown an increased willingness to do the dirty work during the playoffs. His rebound rate has skyrocketed from 10.9% during the regular season to 14.1%, and he’s increased that figure even more of late. He’s pulled down 15.4% of his rebound opportunities over the past five games, and he’s responded with double-digit boards in four of those contests.

Expect him to continue to do work on the boards, making the +200 odds a nice value.

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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.