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After and impressive Game 2 victory on the road, the Heat reverted back to the 8-seed that we saw the majority of the season, dropping both home games to the Nuggets. Denver returns home with a golden opportunity — a chance to win the franchise’s first NBA Championship in front of their fans in Game 5. Let’s breakdown some betting angles on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets
1Q U53.5 (-115) — 1.5-units
It’s been the first half under that’s been the play of the series, easily cashing in the first three games, before a miraculous cash in Game 4. The total closed 106.5, and Jimmy Butler went to the line for a pair with 3.2 seconds left and 106 total points in the half. He missed both, and under bettors rejoiced.
While the under on the half is 4-0, I think the first quarter under is a stronger play in Game 5. The bench players coming on in the second quarter have really pushed the pace, particularly as the series as progressed. In Game 4, that meant a whopping 65 points in the second quarter, after just 41 points in the first. By all accounts, it sounds like Tyler Herro will be returning for this game as well. It makes sense for Miami to look for a spark in a 3-1 series hole, and I’d presume Herro plays in a bench role. When he gets onto the floor, that could also work towards a faster pace and more scoring in the second quarter.
The pace in this series has been extremely slow, and the games have been starting even more conservative. I mentioned the 41 points in the first in Game 4, and in the three games prior, we saw the total land 48, 49 and 49.
With the trophy in the building, we could see some nerves to start this one. Combine that with the pace we’ve seen early in games and I think the first quarter under is the strongest play in Game 5.
Caleb Martin UNDER 9.5 Points (-105) — 1-unit
Martin has been a rollercoaster this postseason, starting out of the rotation, and peaking when he received four of the nine votes to win MVP of the Eastern Conference Finals. He’s come back to reality in this series, averaging 6.75 points in 27.75 minutes per game.
Martin has followed the script we generally think of when discussing role players in the NBA playoffs, playing significantly better in the home games. Martin scored 10 and 11 points in the two games in Miami on a combined 9-of-21 shooting, playing at least 32 minutes in each contest. If we look at the two games in Denver, Martin managed just six total points on 2-for-10 shooting, playing 25 or fewer minutes in each game.
In addition to his poor play in Denver, now we have Herro’s return to the rotation. While Herro’s role remains a mystery, Martin is one of the players that would likely lose some minutes and field goals him in his return. That’s worth an under play here on a player who still may be seeing inflated prop numbers due to his insane ECF.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.