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A new month means some time for reflection — and we’ve been crushing it so far this season. Following a 12-8 record on article plays in May, we’re now sitting at 28-18 for 2023 as a whole. That comes out to a profit of 11.8 units. Pretty good, if I do say so myself.
Tonight presents another opportunity to add to our bankroll. Let’s dive into this small evening slate on the diamond.
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Cincinnati Reds at Boston Red Sox
Hunter Greene Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+120)
This feels like a trap. Is this a trap? While Greene hasn’t proven to be as automatic a path to double-digit strikeouts as Spencer Strider, he’s still one of the best strikeout artists we currently have in baseball. To wit, Greene’s racked up 29 strikeouts in his past three starts, a span of time where the sophomore boasts a jaw-dropping 42.6% strikeout rate. He’s also hit the over on this prop in five of his last six outings. Too small a sample? Alright. Well, Greene owns a 31.5% career strikeout rate going back to the beginning of 2022. Only Strider, Shohei Ohtani and Carlos Rodon can claim higher rates among qualified arms since Greene entered the league.
The matchup isn’t ideal. The Red Sox have the sixth-lowest strikeout rate in MLB and their 9.6% swinging strike rate is the lowest mark in the American League. However, Boston’s strikeout rate has shot up to 23.7% in the past two weeks, a stretch where the team has also struggled to an underwhelming 79 wRC+. Greene should be able to throw five or six innings tonight. If that happens, he’ll clear this prop with ease.
First 5: Under 5 (-115)
Clearly, I have an affinity for Greene. The only thing I’ll add about the young RHP in this space is his reverse-splits. As was the case in his rookie campaign, Greene’s been far more successful against LHBs than RHBs in 2023, holding lefties to a .208 average with a 37.5% strikeout rate. That’s a swell skill-set to have when facing the Red Sox, as the team’s three best hitters — Rafael Devers, Alex Verdugo and Masataka Yoshida — are all left-handed. In fact, the Red Sox’s right-handed bats have compiled just a 90 wRC+ off right-handed pitching this season, with most of that damage coming from the injured Adam Duvall.
On the other side of this matchup we find Chris Sale. The veteran and former All-Star appears to be finding his form as of late, as Sale’s pitched to a 2.23 ERA over his last five starts, holding opponents to a modest .232 wOBA within that span. The Reds have been at their best this season against southpaws, yet Cincinnati also sits 26th in ISO for 2023 as a whole (.136). This isn’t a lineup that should be feared.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.