With the NBA Finals not scheduled to start until Thursday, baseball takes center stage for the next two days. Fortunately, there is plenty of action to choose from. All 30 teams are scheduled to be in action, including a 13-game main slate at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into three of my favorite wagers on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s slate.
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Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers
The Pick: Tigers ML (+110)
Tuesday’s matchup between the Rangers and Tigers features two pitchers on opposite ends of the luck spectrum. Alex Faedo will get the ball for Detroit, and he’s pitched to an unremarkable 4.15 ERA this season. However, 20.0% of the fly balls he’s allowed have turned into homers, which is well above league average. Reducing that number to a normal level results in a much improved 3.61 xFIP.
Things look even better for Faedo when factoring in his Statcast data. He ranks in the 79th percentile in average exit velocity and 83rd percentile in hard-hit rate, so he should be able to limit the damage on balls in play. Add in a 100th-percentile walk rate and a 97th-percentile chase rate, and Faedo has all the makings of a quality MLB starter. His 3.06 xERA puts him in the top 20% of MLB pitchers.
Conversely, Martin Perez has pitched to a 3.83 ERA this season, but most of his peripherals suggest room for regression. He owns a 4.61 xERA and a 4.64 xFIP, and he’s averaging approximately 1.2 fewer strikeouts per nine innings than he did in his breakout 2022 campaign. Perez’s groundball rate is also more than 10 percentage points lower than last year’s, so there are plenty of red flags in his profile.
The Rangers do have a clear edge offensively, but the Tigers are at least palatable against left-handed pitchers. They were exactly league-average in that split last season, and most of their top hitters are right-handed. The sharps have already pushed this number down to +110, but the Tigers feel like the correct side in this matchup.
Milwaukee Brewers at Toronto Blue Jays
The Pick: Brewers ML (+135)
I’m always willing to fade Yusei Kikuchi, especially with moderate underdogs. Kikuchi’s 4.56 ERA isn’t quite as bad as it was last season, but his advanced metrics are still pretty terrible. He’s surrendering nearly 2.5 homers per nine innings, and his FIP sits at 5.84. He’s surrendered at least three earned runs in four of his past five outings, with the lone exception coming against the lowly Pirates.
The Blue Jays' offense is good, but they have a much tougher matchup against Adrian Houser. He’s pitched to a 2.25 ERA across 20 innings this season, and while he’s been fortunate, most of his ERA indicators are in the low-to-mid threes. That gives the Brewers a significant pitching advantage in this matchup.
Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants
The Pick: Pirates ML (+125)
The Pirates will head to the west coast to take on the Giants, and both teams have had up-and-down seasons. The Pirates have cooled off substantially after starting the year red-hot, while the Giants have won 11 of their past 14 games. That includes a 14-4 drubbing against the Pirates on Memorial Day.
However, I like the Pirates chances of picking up the win on Tuesday. They’ll send Johan Oviedo to the bump, who is a quality young starter. He has excellent stuff, with a fastball that occasionally touches triple-digits and a devastating slider. Opponents own just a .252 xwOBA against his slider this season, so it’s a legitimate weapon. Overall, Oviedo has a solid 3.88 xERA for the year.
On the other side, the Giants will turn to John Brebbia as an opener. He’s filled that role on three previous occasions for the Giants this season, never pitching more than 1 1/3 innings. It’s unclear who will get the ball after Brebbia, but the Giants don’t have a ton of good options. They have the eighth-highest bullpen ERA in baseball, with Brebbia serving as one of their best relievers.
Sean Manaea seems like the most likely option, and he owns a dreadful 6.61 ERA and 6.55 xERA through 32 2/3 innings this season. He’s struggled with walks and homers, and opposing batters are making elite contact against him. He ranks in the first percentile in barrel rate, which is why he lost his spot in the rotation to begin with.
Whether it’s Manaea or a combination of relievers, the Pirates should have a solid edge on the mound in this contest.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.