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MLB Picks for May 28: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Matt LaMarca gives his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Sunday’s MLB betting card.

MLB: Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Happy Memorial Day weekend! Whether you’re firing up the grill or having a chill day inside, there is plenty of MLB action to keep you company. That includes an eight-game early slate at 1:35 p.m. ET, a five-game afternoon slate, and a Sunday Night Baseball matchup between the Phillies and Braves.

Let’s dive into three of my favorite wagers on DraftKings Sportsbook for Sunday’s slate.

Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Angels:

The Pick: Marlins Moneyline (+110)

The Marlins have somewhat quietly had a solid season. Their 27-26 record is identical to the Mets, despite spending roughly $250M less on the payroll. They’re currently 4.5 games behind the Braves for the top spot in the division in what has been a surprisingly subpar NL East.

The big reason the Marlins have been able to compete despite a tiny payroll is their contributions from young players. That includes Eury Perez, who will get the ball for the Marlins on Sunday. He entered the year as arguably the top pitching prospect in all of baseball, and he hasn’t disappointed through his first three outings at the big-league level. He’s pitched to a 3.86 ERA and a 10.29 K/9, and while some of his advanced metrics aren’t quite as impressive, this is a guy who should only continue to get better with more experience. The fact that he’s holding his own in the majors at just 20 years old is a testament to how nasty his stuff is.

Patrick Sandoval will start for the Angels, and he’s also been pretty effective this season. However, he’s averaged just 6.20 strikeouts per nine innings, so he’s relied on a .247 BABIP and a 6.7% HR/FB rate. If he regresses in either department, things could get ugly quickly.

While the Marlins are not an offensive juggernaut, they are far better against left-handed pitchers than right-handers. They rank seventh in wRC+ in that split this season, and they boast the 10th-lowest strikeout rate. They should put plenty of balls in play against Sandoval, so I like their chances of picking up a road win.

New York Mets at Colorado Rockies:

The Pick: Rockies Moneyline (+125)

Speaking of the Mets, they’re coming off another disappointing performance on Saturday, losing to the Rockies despite having ace Justin Verlander on the mound. They did win the first game of the series, so Sunday’s matchup will serve as the rubber match.

However, the Mets will send Tylor Megill to the mound, and he has really struggled in 2023. His 4.32 ERA isn’t terrible, but his 5.98 xERA and 5.45 FIP suggest he’s been a bit lucky. His strikeouts are down and his walks are up compared to last season, and he’s been worse away from home than at Citi Field. Pitching on the road in Colorado may be the toughest task in baseball, so Megill will have his hands full.

The Rockies will turn to Austin Gomber, who has been even worse than Megill on paper. However, Gomber was extremely effective against the Mets in New York earlier this month, limiting them to just two runs across six innings.

The Mets’ struggles against left-handers are nothing new. They’re just 18th in wRC+ in that split this season compared to 11th vs. right-handers. The Rockies have won four of their past six games overall, so +125 seems like a pretty good price tag.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Seattle Mariners:

The Pick: Pirates Moneyline (+115)

The Pirates have come crashing back down to reality in recent weeks, with their offense being the big reason why. They’re just 27th in wRC+ over the past 30 days, beating out only the A’s, Brewers, and Guardians. They’ve gone just 6-16 in May, so they’re back to being the team they were expected to be before the start of the season.

Still, I think there’s a bit of value with them on Sunday. They’re taking on left-hander Marco Gonzales, who is one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball. His average fastball velocity is under 90 miles per hour, making him a major outlier in 2023. Unsurprisingly, he averages just 6.09 strikeouts per nine innings, and he’s pitched to a 5.68 ERA.

Pitchers like Gonzales have to limit the damage on balls in play to be effective, and Gonzales isn’t even particularly good at that. He ranks in the 31st percentile in average exit velocity, so he ranks in the 10th percentile in terms of expected batting average. If there’s a spot for the Pirates’ offense to turn things around, this is it.

Luis Ortiz will make his fourth start of the year for the Pirates, and he was a massive riser up the prospect leaderboard over the past few years. He entered 2023 as the No. 80 prospect per FanGraphs, and he boasts an outstanding fastball-slider combination. His stuff hasn’t translated to big results at the MLB level, but the talent is there. That’s more than can be said about Gonzales.

I’ll gladly take my chances with Ortiz and the Pirates in this spot.

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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.