The Nuggets have advanced to the NBA Finals with a sweep out west, and now the Heat have a chance to do the same in the east. It’s been a nightmare series for the Celtics, who will attempt to figure things out with their season on the line in Game 4 on Tuesday in Miami. Let’s breakdown some betting angles on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Boston Celtics at Miami Heat
Heat ML (-120) — 2.5-units
The market seems like it has finally caught up with the Heat, but I don’t think it’s too late.
Some trends will point you towards the Celtics — Boston is 5-4 SU/8-1 ATS as an underdog this season, and is yet to go on a four-game losing streak. The season is on the line, so you’d expect the Celtics to play with some heart ... but we also expected that in Game 2 ... and then in Game 3.
The Celtics are saying all the right things down 0-3 in the series, but I don’t think they actually believe it. All kinds of reports are coming out of Boston with the mess that this team is now — the team still isn’t over the coaching mess from just before the season began. The Celtics are discouraged that the Heat are playing so well and making so many shots. Jaylen Brown is holding back from saying what he wants to, and that the locker room is a mess. Upper management/front office had an altercation with the players following Game 3. I’m summarizing, but all of those things have come from prominent Boston reporters or people that cover the team.
Ultimately, I think the Celtics are broken, and know they can’t win this series. So I’m throwing out the numbers and trusting the Heat to get this done for a couple of reasons. Boston may get off to a decent start in this game given the urgency of the situation, but the C’s have shown all series that once Miami makes a run, they will lay down. The Heat are mentally tougher, and I expect that to get them by. The Celtics could always get hot and win a game — their 3-point shooting is always their key to victory. But the Heat have been shooting the lights out themselves, and I think any sign of adversity will cause the Celtics to fold.
Of the 150 times in the NBA a team has been down 0-3, 94 have resulted in a sweep. There have been 14 times that the team lost by 20 or more points to go down 0-3, and those teams are just 2-12 in Game 4. Unless the Celtics win in a blowout, I don’t really care about the over adjustment in the market. Miami being +4.5 in Game 3 is essentially the same thing in -1.5 in Game 4 given how the Celtics play. Boston needs to blowout, or Miami will cover the number and win the game.
My two favorite props in this game have steep prices — Butler -175 and Martin -160. So I decided to go with a rare SGP here.
Martin is shooting an insane 10-of-21 from downtown in the series, and while he deserves credit for the makes, only a couple have been heavily contested. The Celtics’ perimeter defense has been abysmal, so I expect more open looks. Martin has made at least three triples in each games this series, and has knocked down two or more in nine of 14 games this postseason.
Butler has has multiple steals in 10 of the 13 playoff games he’s played in, and has been even better in the ECF. He’s averaging 3.7 steals in these three games so far (11 total in three games). The Celtics are turnover prone, and Butler’s been doing a fantastic job playing the passing lanes.
If I play anything from the Celtics side, it’ll be for them to show some early life. I played Brown on the first quarter points total in Game 3, and may look to switch it up to Tatum in this spot. Tatum still hasn’t made a field goal in the fourth quarter of this series (0-for-3 with five turnovers), and while I don’t trust him late, the poor finishes have motivated some strong start from him. Still on the fence on if I play this or some Celtics first quarter, but looking to Boston to play well early is the way to back them.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.