The Nuggets handed the Lakers their first home loss of the postseason on Saturday night, opening up a 3-0 series lead in the Western Conference Finals — a lead that we all know has never been overcome in the NBA Playoffs. I don’t have much of an opinion on a side in Game 4, but I’ll keep riding some props that have been good to me this series. Let’s breakdown some betting angles on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I made a big play on the Lakers in Game 3, and wound up on the wrong side for the entire game. Los Angeles made runs, but never had control of the game — as soon as it grabbed a fourth quarter lead, Denver went on its best run of the night to put the game away. Maybe I was a game early on the Lakers. Unlike the Celtics, this team does show effort, and should respond in Game 4. But the Nuggets very well may have the Lakers’ number, and the shorter number on this game shows how the market feels. I’ll sit back and see how the game goes without taking a side, knowing we have the Denver Game 1/Series Double Result (+110) in pocket.
I’ll stick with some props that’ve been working recently, and hope they continue to with the Lakers in a desperation spot.
Rui Hachimura ALT Points 15+ (+120) — 1-unit
Hachimura has been spectacular in this series, going for 17 and 21 points in the first two games in Denver, cashing some large plus prices. He nearly got us 15+ again in Game 3, but landed on 13 points while missing a few late shots that would have gotten us there.
What I did like to see was that the Lakers gave Hachimura more minutes, which I believe continues moving forward. The matchup against the Nuggets has been a favorable one for Hachimura, and with the slight bump in minutes in a do-or-die home game, I expect him to come off the bench aggressive.
From a price standpoint, we can lay -120 on O13.5 points, or get the +120 for what converts to O14.5. Big swing in juice for one point.
Austin Reaves OVER 2.5 3-Pointers (+100) — 1.25-units
Reaves has been spectacular all postseason, but has been even better in this series. He’s now 13-for-23 from downtown in the series, and while that doesn’t seem sustainable, we know the opportunities will remain. Reaves is getting 7.7 attempts per game from beyond the arc in the WCF, which is about 2.5 more attempts than he was averaging in the first two games.
The matchup seems to dictate good looks for Reaves, and we know he hasn’t been shy to let it fly. The second-year sharp shooter has cashed the over at this number in all three games of the series, and each of his last six playoff games overall.
Austin Reaves OVER 22.5 Points + Assists (-105) — 1.25-units
This one obviously ties right into more success for Reaves. I think he knocks down enough 3-pointers to cash his point prop, but I was to tie in assists, because he’s been making great decisions with the ball.
Reaves has actually cashed over 22.5 if it were just his point prop in three of his last four, scoring exactly 23 points three times, and 22 in the other. He’s gone over this mark in five of his last six overall, and has been even better in this series. Outside of his shot-making ability from 3-point land, Reaves is still getting into the paint (both scoring and distributing), as well as getting to the free throw line. Averaging 28.7 points and assists combined in these WCF, I like Reaves to continue his success in Game 4.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.