Here are my favorite bets available on DraftKings Sportsbook for Wednesday’s MLB slate.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves
Marlins +115
When Kyle Wright and Braxton Garrett squared off recently, the Marlins walked away with the win. Unfortunately, poor weather didn’t allow either pitcher to leave much of an imprint on that game — and it had the makings of a pitchers’ duel. In just three innings, Wright punched out six of the 12 batters he faced while allowing two hits. Garrett only took on 10 hitters, gave up one hit and struck out three.
Now, Miami being the underdog here does make sense, even though Garrett has been the better of these two pitchers in the early going. Atlanta has mashed left-handed pitching. Miami has been so-so against righties.
Having posted a 47.9% hard-contact rate against lefties since mid-April, there’s no denying the good work they’ve done within the split recently. But, that rate can’t hold up over an extended period of time. Looking over to their .292 BABIP against lefties during that time frame, that’s another indicator Atlanta is due for regression. Given Garrett’s form and the fact he’s done well against the Braves in the past — and that he only went through the order once last time they saw him — he’s an arm that can deliver Atlanta some of that regression.
Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees
Guardians -140
The Yankees continue to battle injuries, so they continue to be a team to consider attacking day-to-day. With Shane Bieber on the bump, Cleveland is in position to finish off this trip to the Bronx on a positive note.
Bieber’s strikeout rate may still be on the decline, but he’s still finding ways to keep hitters off balance. And while his .268 BABIP might indicate he’s been a bit lucky and due for regression, that’s pretty much the number opponents have posted against Bieber in the month of April since 2021. That number should maintain through Wednesday’s outing, with the Yankees having one of the 10 highest ground-ball rates (44.3%) and five lowest line-drive rates (18.1%) against righties since mid-April.
During the same time frame, the Guardians have been middle of the pack when it comes to the rate at which they hit grounders, liners and flies. While they have one of the worst hard-contact rates (27.8%) against righties during that span, they aren’t getting cheated. Cleveland’s lineup is the only one with a soft-contact rate below 10% (9.9%) against righties since mid-April.
Although Clarke Schmidt is generating more punchouts when pitching at home (32.7%) to start the season, he also has a 3.55 HR/9 at Yankee Stadium. Also, hitters have just a 14.7% soft-contact rate against Schmidt through his first 12 2/3 innings logged in the Bronx.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.