The NBA Conference Finals get underway in the Eastern Conference on Wednesday when the Miami Heat visit the Boston Celtics. It’s a rematch of the 2022 Conference Finals, and a meeting between these two teams with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line for the third time in four seasons. Let’s breakdown some betting angles on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Any added plays will be posted to Twitter as I play them.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Miami Heat at Boston Celtics
The price on this series makes it really tough to bet. The Celtics are monster favorites, and on paper, should end this series in four of five games. But we’ve seen this play out too many times to trust them to do so. Boston let’s series’ go longer than they should, and Miami’s toughness keeps it in the mix against any opponent.
From articles earlier in the season we have plays on Boston (-105) to win the east to win 4-units and Miami at (+330) to win 4.95-units. I’ll sit back here and hope to collect the 2.5-unit net win on the C’s, knowing we’re covered if they don’t.
As for some props for Game 1 and the series, I do have some plays.
Tatum seems to have found his stride as a scorer over the last 4.5 quarters, but regardless of how he’s shooting the ball, he’s been making an impact on games with his versatility. Through the last 12 playoff games, Tatum has cashed the over on 14.5 combined rebounds and assists 10 times, averaging 16.0 during that span.
The change in the starting lineup (inserting Rob Williams) hasn’t hurt Tatum as a rebounder, bringing down 11 boards per game in the last two games. JT went 2-2 to the over on this prop during the regular season against Miami, but did cash his last two with 15 and 21 combined in those games (on of his misses landed on 14).
Tatum is making terrific decisions entering the ECF, and I think if Miami looks to slow his hot streak as a scorer, it’ll help in the assist department. I’ll ride the 10-2 trend and look for JT to extend it in Game 1.
This is more of a gut call play than a play you back with numbers. Tatum is one of three guys that can score the most points in a game in this series, along with Jaylen Brown and Jimmy Butler. Butler scored 42 and 56 in the final games against Milwaukee, and I think that’s inflating his number here.
Butler maxed out at 28 points in the series against the Knicks, and while he’s had about four full days off, his ankle still may be bothering him. Tatum just showed us his 51-point ceiling yet again in Game 7, and very well could ride that hot hand right into this series. Tatum is the far more lethal scorer, and we’re getting him at a very fair price to have the best scoring game of the series.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.