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MLB Picks for May 14: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Matt LaMarca gives his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Sunday’s MLB betting card.

MLB: Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports

We have another full slate of baseball scheduled for Sunday, with action spread all throughout the day. There’s a nine-game main slate starting at 1:35 p.m. ET, a three-game afternoon slate at 4:05 p.m. ET, and a Sunday Night Baseball matchup between the St. Louis Cardinals and Boston Red Sox.

Let’s dive into three of my favorite wagers on DraftKings Sportsbook for Sunday’s slate.

New York Mets at Washington Nationals:

The Pick: Nationals Moneyline (+175)

The Mets and Nationals will play essentially a doubleheader on Sunday. They’ll start by resuming yesterday’s game, which was suspended in the third inning, and the second game will start at 4:35 p.m. ET.

The Mets managed to win Game 1 of their series vs. the Nationals, but there are still plenty of issues with this squad at the moment. Their biggest issue is their pitching, which will be tested heavily by the double-header. They haven’t decided who will start Game 1 on Sunday, but there’s a good chance that the bullpen will do a lot of the heavy lifting.

Max Scherzer will get the ball in Game 2, and he’s been in the news for all the wrong reasons of late. He was scratched from his last scheduled start with neck spasms, but the NY Post’s Jon Heyman reports that Scherzer is going to have to deal with a side injury all year. He has not looked like the same pitcher on the mound to start the year, pitching to a 5.56 ERA, 5.19 xERA, and 6.29 FIP.

Scherzer is still being priced like an ace pitcher, but his numbers suggest he’s a different guy this season. The Mets’ offense isn’t capable of slugging the team to a win, so the Nationals are live underdogs at their current price tag.

San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks:

The Pick: Giants Moneyline (-140)

The Giants are up to -140 vs. the Diamondbacks, which is more expensive than I typically like to target in baseball. That said, I think they’re still a solid target at that figure.

Logan Webb is the big reason why. His traditional metrics are solid – 3.46 ERA, 9.52 K/9 – but his advanced metrics are even better. Webb has been unlucky from a home run standpoint this season, with 21.1% of his fly balls turning into homers. He has a career mark of just 12.0% in that category, and he was at 8.3% last year. Webb’s xFIP sits at just 2.85, so some homer regression should result in an improvement to his traditional ERA.

Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks will turn to Brandon Pfaadt, who has not looked up to the task at the MLB level. Pfaadt is a big-time prospect, but he’s posted a 12.10 ERA and a 14.45 xERA through his first two starts. He’s allowed six homers in less than 10 innings, and opposing batters have made elite contact against him. They’ve managed a 56.8% hard-hit rate and a 21.6% barrel rate, and it’s hard to find sustained success in the majors if batters are squaring up your pitches at that frequency.

The Giants’ offense has plenty of power, ranking third in the league in ISO vs. right-handed pitchers. That makes this a rough spot for Pfaadt to try to turn things around.

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers:

The Pick: Padres Moneyline (+145)

The Dodgers have turned things around after a subpar start to the season. They’ve gone 9-2 since the start of May, and they’re up to 25-15 for the year. That gives them the best record in the NL West, and they’re just a half-game behind the Atlanta Braves for the best record in the National League.

They’ll have Tony Gonsolin on the mound, and he’s pitched to a 1.93 ERA through his first three starts this season. However, his advanced metrics aren’t nearly as impressive. His .200 BABIP is extremely low, while his strikeouts are down to 6.43 per nine innings. Overall, his 5.00 FIP is more than three full runs higher than his traditional ERA, which suggests plenty of room for regression moving forward.

Ryan Weathers looks very similar to Gonsolin on paper, posting a 2.50 ERA and 5.50 K/9 through 18 innings. However, his 3.79 FIP is significantly better.

I think this matchup is ultimately closer to a coin flip than the current odds suggest, so I’ll take my chances with the Padres at +145.

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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.