We’re down to the final game of the college basketball season — an unlikely title game between San Diego State and Connecticut. I whiffed on a couple of totals on Saturday night in the Final Four games, but kept my largest bet of the tournament alive — UConn to win it all. Because of that, I don’t think I’ll be adding to this game, nor will I come back with any SDSU plus the points. However, I do have a couple props in this game that I like. I’m not sure I’ll bet them all, but will write up each lean and put a unit distinction next to anything I wind up playing.
No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 4 Connecticut
The Aztecs have been in rock fights all tournament, and we have cashed multiple first half unders on them in this tournament. However, we saw the complete opposite on Saturday against FAU, with the Owls putting up efficient numbers on offense, and SDSU playing from behind. I think that was an outlier game though. This one should be much closer to the Alabama-type of game, where we saw a 28-23 halftime score.
UConn is playing as well defensively as anyone in the country, limiting Arkansas to 29 first half points, Gonzaga to 32 and Miami to a mere 24. SDSU is going to have to try and slow the pace to keep this close, but the Huskies can play right into that style with their defense, size and rebounding. I have a strong lean to SDSU scoring 28 or fewer in the first half of this one.
Adama Sanogo OVER 7.5 Rebounds (-130) — 0.5-units
Sanogo has been dominating the tournament, going over 7.5 rebounds in all five games so far. He posted 10 against Miami, 10 against the Zags, eight a piece against Arkansas and Saint Mary’s and then 13 against a smaller Iona squad. The Aztecs have some size, but I still give the advantage to Sanogo on the glass.
While the pace may start slower, SDSU has had some awful stretches shooting the ball in this tournament. That slew of offensive rebounds the Aztecs got to help them win the FAU game won’t happen this time around with Sanogo on the floor. And if game script holds, SDSU should be trailing in this game, forcing them to push the pace and take more uncomfortable shots as the game goes on — setting up Sanogo to get more work on the glass. I’ll make a small play here, but I expect Sanogo to continue owning the backboard to help his team win.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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