The NHL playoff schedule starts to break up with the first round nearing completion. Tonight there are just three games on the schedule but two of them are potential elimination games with the Maple Leafs and Golden Knights both up 3-1. The Golden Knights are also the biggest favorite on the slate at -180 on DraftKings Sportsbook and are facing a very banged-up Winnipeg squad as well. The only game with a total bigger than 5.5 is Toronto vs. Tampa Bay, which currently has a 6.5 total attached — a number these two teams have gone over in every game up to this point.
Golden Knights in regulation +100
The Golden Knights have taken control of the series with three straight wins and now have a shot to close out the Jets in Game 5 at home. Winnipeg has been a resilient team this season but this currently feels like a massive hill for them to climb, They may be without both Josh Morrissey and Mark Scheifele in Game 5, and it is now also being reported that first-line center Pierre-Luc Dubois is injured and has an unknown status for Game 5 as well.
The Golden Knights have been able to overcome an obvious deficit in net by simply outplaying the Jets five-on-five, having outshot the Jets badly in each of the last three games. I would expect that trend to continue today with the Jets so banged up and the Knights just one game away from the second round. This feels like a matchup where we could see an early goalie pull by the Jets and perhaps even multiple empty net goals by Vegas — so the Vegas puck line at +145 is certainly in play. However, the +100 odds for a Vegas regulation win are enticing enough and provide a little more safety in case the empty net goal doesn’t fall. Either way, playing for Vegas to close things out today is the side to be on given the action in this series the last few games.
The Rangers are in a spot tonight after losing the last two games at home. It’s desperation time for the Rangers, who will certainly be looking to put more pressure on rookie goaltender Akira Schmid, who only had to face 23 shots in Game 4. The Rangers top forwards should be buzzing early and often today and looking at their shot on goal props for some value does make sense from a betting perspective.
Forward Chris Kreider has been one of the Rangers’ best players in the series thus far and certainly knows the importance of getting more shots on a young goalie. He had eight shots in the first two games (five in Game 1 and three in Game 2) and should be looking for more opportunities today after getting just two shots on goal in the Rangers’ two home games. Kreider averaged 2.9 SOG during the regular season as well so the +100 line is more than fair when looking at his seasonal averages. He’s a solid player prop to look at tonight in the Metropolitan matchup.
Regardless of how you want to play it, there looks like some good value in the Ryan O’Reilly prop department today. The Lightning simply do not have the depth to deal with O’Reilly, who is playing a third-line center role but is also being used extensively on special teams. O’Reilly grabbed two assists in the comeback win last game with his wingers accounting for two goals, including the game-winner.
Overall, the former Blues forward now has a point in every single game of the series and seven in his last four games. The totals in the Tampa-Toronto series have gone over every single night and it would not be shocking to see the Leafs push ahead late in this game, either with some empty net action or with Tampa simply falling apart under the weight of the deeper Leafs squad. Expect O’Reilly to be involved either way. The -135 odds for him to score a point looks very fair considering how much ice time he’s seeing and his performance to date. The over 0.5 assist line of +145 is also great for anyone looking for a bigger payout who doesn’t mind a touch more risk.
All odds are provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds are subject to change.
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