There have been some surprising starts to the 2023 MLB season, and we have another full slate of baseball set for Tuesday. All 30 teams are scheduled to take the field, including a nine-game main slate starting at 7:07 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into three of my favorite wagers on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s slate.
The Pick: Marlins ML (+195)
The Marlins were one of my favorite “sleepers” heading into the year, and they have not disappointed through their first 23 games. They’re currently sitting at 12-11, with five of their losses coming to the Mets. They’ve managed to win each of their five other series to start the season, so they’ve proven they’re a competent baseball team.
They did not look the part on Monday, but they were facing arguably the best pitcher in baseball in Spencer Strider. Strider brings the same electric pitching metrics to the table as Jacob deGrom, but he does it at 24 years old without the same durability concerns.
They’ll get a much friendlier matchup Tuesday vs. Charlie Morton. Facing Morton isn’t a walk in the park, but it’s a breeze compared to Strider. He owns a 3.22 ERA for the season, but his 6.09 xERA suggests plenty of room for regression.
The Marlins will turn to Bryan Hoeing, who has been called up from Triple-A to make his first start of the year. He was dreadful in 12 2/3 innings last season, pitching to a 12.08 ERA and an 8.64 xERA, but he boasts a 2.08 ERA in 17 1/3 Triple-A innings this season.
The Braves definitely deserve to be favorites in this spot, but I don’t think they deserve to be favored by this much. Getting the Marlins as nearly 2-to-1 dogs is very appealing.
The Pick: Royals ML (+125)
Like the Marlins, the Diamondbacks are another team off to a better-than-expected start this season. They’ve won 13 of their first 24 games, putting them in first place in the NL West. It’s unlikely that they can hold off the Dodgers and Padres all season, but they’re trying their best to make it a three-team race for as long as possible.
That said, they’ll send Ryne Nelson to the mound on Tuesday, who is an exploitable pitcher. He’s posted a 4.91 ERA through his first four starts, despite limiting batters to a .215 BABIP. Nelson also strikes out just 5.73 batters per nine innings, so he allows a lot of contact. If some of those balls start finding grass instead of gloves, he could be looking at even worse numbers moving forward.
Brady Singer will get the ball for the Royals, and he’s been awful to start the year. However, Singer emerged as a competent MLB starter in 2022, posting a 3.23 ERA and 3.40 SIERA across more than 153 innings. He’s been unlucky in terms of balls leaving the yard in 2023 – his 2.14 HR/9 is well above his career average – and his 3.89 xFIP makes him a prime progression candidate.
The Royals are also a prime sharp target on this slate, garnering 60% of the moneyline dollars on just 28% of the bets.
The Pick: Under 6.5 runs (-105)
This is an insanely low total for 2023. Scoring is up thanks to the rule changes, with nine separate teams averaging at least 5.0 runs per game to start the year. Only one team averaged more than 5.0 runs last year, so it will be interesting to see if the increased scoring continues.
However, this matchup features two offenses that haven’t exactly been firing on all cylinders. The Yankees rank just 22nd in runs per game this season, while the Twins are in 19th. Minnesota ranks 25th in wRC+ vs. left-handed pitchers, while the Yankees are 19th against right-handers.
Both teams will also have quality starters on the mound on Tuesday. The Twins will send Joe Ryan to the mound, who has posted a 3.24 ERA with 10.44 strikeouts per nine innings through his first four starts. Most of Ryan’s ERA indicators suggest he’s been at least that good, with his xERA sitting at a sparkling 2.46.
Meanwhile, Nasty Nestor Cortes keeps dealing for the Yankees. His 3.09 ERA is up slightly from last year’s mark, but his 2.97 xERA is in the same ballpark. The Yankees also boast one of the best bullpens in baseball, ranking first in the league with a 2.50 ERA.
Ultimately, runs should be at a premium in this matchup. The sharps are also all over this under, with 98% of the dollars landing on that side.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.