The NFL Draft is an extremely unique market. We’re betting on information and what we believe teams will decide to do on draft day, rather than an actually sporting competition. I could tell you Patrick Mahomes was going to miss and NFL game and you could beat the closing line by seven points, but when they play the game, the Chiefs could still cover the spread without him. When you’re betting a draft, there aren’t any buzzer beaters for a backdoor cover. Your info/intuition is either right or wrong.
It’s hard to produce gambling content for a draft. The market is constantly a moving target, and info can go bad quickly. I put three plays out on Twitter this week, two of which are still available at solid prices, and one that maybe we can still take advantage of at some point in time.
I’m going to share my analysis on all three of the plays from DraftKings Sportsbook below.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
When the Bears landed the top pick in the draft, there was some buzz that Anderson could even go No. 1 overall. But Chicago did the smart thing, and moved back, helping a QB-needy team jump up to draft their QB of the future.
We believe Carolina will go with Bryce Young in that spot. which leaves two more landing spots for Anderson. It would be incredibly bold for Houston to use the No. 2 pick on defense when they have such a glaring need at QB, and there are a few on the board that are considered potential franchise players.
Unless the Texans move back, it’s my belief that they ultimately go QB here, and we’ll discuss who it may be later. That leaves Arizona picking at No. 3 — a team that’s not in the market for a QB.
Like the Bears, the Cardinals are desperate to move back here. It hasn’t happened yet, but it always could on draft day. That’s one path to winning this wager. The other path is that even if Arizona gets stuck with the pick, it prefers another defensive player to Anderson. As the odds indicate, Tyree Wilson could easily be that dude. Ultimately, I feel like there are more paths to Anderson falling out of the top-three picks than landing in the top-three. I played it at +120 and think even money is a good play.
I believe Levis is behind Young on Houston’s board, and is very much alive to go No. 2 overall. However, if that’s not the case, I feel No. 4 overall is Levis’ floor in this draft. A team could always swap with Arizona like we discussed above and use the pick to select Levis. Or he could fall to the Colts at No. 4, who I feel would be happy to take him in that spot.
This bet got steamed up a little and is not off the board. But pay attention to markets that come back up. If we feel No. 4 is truly his floor here, a bet may open in which we can bet him in some way to land in that top-four at a similar/better price.
I also think Levis going No. 2 overall is worth consideration if you want to get some good plus-money.
These plays all tie in together in certain ways. This one was +240 when I put it out on Twitter, and I’m somewhat surprised at the direction the number is moving. Richardson is a freak prospect that a team will bite on high in the draft. He could absolutely slip to No. 5 or a little further before a team jumps up to trade for him, but I consider it just as likely he goes in the top-four. So given massive plus money on that happening, I’ll take a chance here.
I don’t feel as safe about this play as the other two, as the odds would indicate, but there are multiple paths to win this one.
If the Texans do go with Levis at No. 2, it will really help this play. That would open up options for a team to identify an early run at QB and help Arizona do what it wants — move back. If a team didn’t move up to No. 3 for Richardson, the QB-desperate Colts would have a good shot to take him at No. 4.
Part of the reason that Richardson is priced like this is the idea that C.J. Stroud will be the second or third QB selected in this draft. I feel he has the potential to slide in this draft given what I’ve been reading, and hopefully we get the chance to bet that result as markets continue to be released.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.