clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

MLB Picks for April 18: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Matt LaMarca gives his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s MLB betting card.

Tuesday is setting up to be a massive baseball day. All 30 teams are scheduled to take the field, and there are two doubleheaders on the schedule. That leaves 17 games to choose from, including an 11-game DraftKings main slate getting underway at 7:05 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into three of my favorite wagers on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s slate.

Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals:

The Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline (+140)

It’s obviously very early in the season, but the Diamondbacks are currently in first place in the NL West. That division was supposed to feature two of the best teams in baseball, the Dodgers and Padres, but both teams have underperformed to start the year. Meanwhile, Arizona is taking full advantage of the new rules and the increased success rate on stolen bases. They’re averaging more than a steal per game, and they’ve gone 18-20 on stolen base attempts this season.

Their offense draws a difficult matchup Tuesday vs. Jordan Montgomery, who has looked like a completely different pitcher since joining the Cardinals last year. He’s posted a 2.45 ERA through his first three outings, but his advanced metrics aren’t quite as favorable. He owns a 3.88 SIERA, which suggests he hasn’t been quite as good as advertised.

The Diamondbacks will send Drey Jameson to the mound, who entered this year as the No. 78 prospect per FanGraphs. He’s been used as a starter and out of the bullpen this year, but he’s posted an impressive 1.46 ERA across 12 1/3 innings. He has a heavy fastball, averaging 97.3 miles per hour, and he ranks in the 96th percentile in Whiff Rate.

The sharps are all over the Diamondbacks in this spot, which has driven the odds down from +155 to +140. They’ve received 67% of the dollars on just 42% of the bets, so this seems like a good one to grab before the odds move even further.

New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers:

The Pick: Mets Moneyline (+140)

Are the Dodgers in trouble? It’s way too early to panic, but things don’t look great in Los Angeles at the moment. The bottom half of their lineup isn’t nearly as intimidating as it was in years past, particularly with catcher Will Smith currently on the IL due to a concussion. Their pitching staff is also in a bit of disarray after losing Tyler Anderson to free agency and Walker Buehler, Tony Gonsolin, and Ryan Pepiot to injuries.

The Dodgers will have the calming presence of Clayton Kershaw on the mound on Tuesday, but Kershaw is getting up there in years. He just turned 35 years old, and he hasn’t exactly dominated to start the year. He’s pitched to a 3.50 ERA across his first three starts, and his 3.67 SIERA suggests that’s an accurate reflection of his performance.

The Mets will turn to Tylor Megill, who has been one of their most consistent starters to start the year. He’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in all three outings, and while he’s definitely been a bit fortunate, he’s propelled the team to a perfect 3-0 record in his starts.

With the Dodgers struggling, this is the perfect time for the Mets to catch them. They will likely be better as they get healthier, but this Dodgers’ team is overvalued given the current state of their roster.

Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres:

The Pick: Under 7.5 runs (-115)

Tuesday’s matchup between the Braves and Padres should feature some of the best pitching of the day. The Braves will send Spencer Strider to the mound, who may be the best pitcher in baseball. He burst onto the scene as a rookie in 2022, pitching to a sparkling 2.67 ERA across 131 2/3 innings. He also racked up an elite 13.81 strikeouts per nine innings, which was the top mark among all pitchers with at least 100 innings.

Strider’s strikeout stuff has been even nastier to start his sophomore campaign. He’s up to 15.19 strikeouts per nine innings, and while his ERA is slightly up, he still boasts a 2.26 FIP. The Padres have been mediocre offensively, ranking 17th in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers, so he should be able to keep them at bay.

On the other side, Blake Snell has not had the start to the year he was hoping for. He’s pitched to a 6.92 ERA and a 7.07 xERA, and opposing batters have done significant damage when they’ve managed to make contact. They’re averaging 2.08 homers per nine innings and a .405 batting average on balls in play. Snell is still generating plenty of swings and misses – he’s averaged 11.08 strikeouts per nine innings – but no one can overcome that kind of batted ball data.

I don’t think I’m going out on a huge limb when I say he’s due for some positive regression. Snell has a career HR/9 of 0.98 and BABIP of .297, and if those marks return to the norm, he’s looking at significant improvement. This is another game where the sharps are taking a clear stand, with the under receiving 74% of the dollars on just 29% of the bets. This number has dipped from 8.0 to 7.5, but I still think there’s some value.

Place your MLB bets at DraftKings Sportsbook and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.

Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.