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MLB Picks for April 11: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Matt LaMarca gives his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s MLB betting card.

MLB: New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Tuesday is a solid sports day. The NBA regular season is officially in the books, and the play-in tournament will get underway with two matchups. The NHL regular season is also winding down, and there are plenty of teams still fighting for playoff spots.

That said, don’t forget about baseball!

All 30 MLB teams are scheduled to be in action, including a 10-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into three of my favorite wagers on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s slate.

San Diego Padres at New York Mets:

Mets Moneyline (-140)

It hasn’t been the start to the year that Mets fans were hoping for. They did manage to beat up on the Marlins and won the first game of this series vs. the Padres, but they were embarrassed in a three-game sweep vs. the Brewers. Their offense has struggled for large stretches, while the aging pitching staff has dealt with velocity issues due to the pitch clock. Still, this team has plenty of talent, and they’re a strong candidate for some positive regression.

Offensively, the team was one of the best in the league at hitting with runners in scoring position last season, but they’re at just .218 so far this season. That’s the fourth-lowest mark in the league, better than only the lowly Tigers, Athletics, and Royals.

David Peterson will get the ball Tuesday vs. the Padres, and he’s also a candidate for some positive regression. He pitched to a 3.83 ERA and a 3.57 SIERA last season, but he has struggled to start the new year. He’s striking out 10 hitters per nine innings, but opposing batters have managed a .440 BABIP when they have managed to make contact. That should regress closer to his career norm moving forward, so Peterson is a major improvement candidate.

Meanwhile, the Padres are going with a complete wildcard at pitcher in Ryan Weathers. He was crushed over 123 innings in Triple-A last season, pitching to a 6.73 ERA and a 7.21 FIP. Things weren’t any better for him in the majors, as he surrendered four runs over 3 2/3 innings in his only start. He survived in his first outing of the year, but he managed just two strikeouts in his five innings. Overall, Weathers doesn’t seem good enough to survive at the MLB level, so the Mets seem underpriced at -140.

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies:

Marlins Moneyline (+125)

I am all aboard the Jesus Luzardo bandwagon. Luzardo was a big-time pitching prospect in the A’s organization, and he pitched to a 1.50 ERA out of the bullpen across 12 innings in 2019. However, he struggled to build on those results in subsequent years as a starter and was eventually traded to the Marlins.

Luzardo quietly had a breakout season in 2021, pitching to a 3.32 ERA and a 3.12 FIP across more than 100 innings. If his first two results are any indications, he’s ready to make another leap in 2023. He owns a 0.71 ERA to start the year, and he’s striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings for the second consecutive season. His control can still be an issue at times, but he was masterful against the Twins in his last outing. He racked up 10 strikeouts with just one walk, and he limited the Twins to just one run.

The Phillies roughed up Sandy Alcantara on Monday, but now they’ll have to deal with the team’s best pitcher. Ok, that might be too far. Despite their success vs. Alcantara, the Phillies’ lineup hasn’t been nearly as potent as it was expected to be. They’re 17th in wRC+ vs. southpaws to start the year, and with Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins on the shelf, the bottom half of their lineup is very exploitable. I’ll take my chances with the Fish at plus money.

Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks:

Brewers Moneyline (-125)

What am I missing here? The Brewers will send Corbin Burnes to the mound on Tuesday, who is undoubtedly one of the best pitchers in baseball. He hasn’t looked like it to start the year – he owns a 9.64 ERA over his first two starts – but he’s pitched to a 2.94 ERA or better in each of the past three seasons. I don’t think I’m going out on a huge limb by saying he’ll improve moving forward.

The Diamondbacks will hand the ball to Merrill Kelly, who is simply not in Burnes’ weight class. He’s an average pitcher – maybe slightly above average – but he’s survived with smoke and mirrors through his first two starts. His 7.45 xERA is nearly four runs higher than his 3.86 actual ERA, and he’s walked as many batters as he’s struck out through his first 9 1/3 innings.

The Brewers’ offense has also held its own to start the year, ranking eighth in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers.

So, I ask again: what am I missing? Why can I get Burnes and the Brewers at just -125? Maybe it’s a trap, but I’m willing to fall for it.

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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.