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We’re through the opening weekend of the Madness, and now we’re playing for spots in the Elite Eight. Friday not only has a shorter board, but we have some unusually large favorites for the Sweet Sixteen. I have some futures going here, as well as a game I think could be good for in-game betting, so I’ll go through how I’m handling the games below.
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No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 1 Alabama (6:30pm ET)
South Regional Semifinal — Louisville, KY
1H UNDER 64 (-110) — 1-unit
I already have a pretty big future on Alabama to reach the Elite Eight, so I’ll just be riding the Tide out on a -105 ML ticket in this game and hoping for the best. Because I’m also fortune to have a Creighton 40-1 ticket that I put out last May, I also added to ‘Bama in a couple of futures markets as a potential hedge if both big favorites do indeed wind up prevailing. If you don’t have action yet, I obviously feel Alabama works as a parlay piece on the moneyline, but don’t want to lay this many points.
As for a specific play on the game, I do like the first half under. SDSU has no choice but to slow the pace and try and make this a rock fight. I think they’ll stick to that game plan early, limiting the possessions in an attempt to keep this a tighter game. Both teams rank in the top-five in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency, which plays towards the under. If a team ramps up the pace, it’s ‘Bama. I just don’t think they’ll have a chance to do so until later in the game. SDSU ranks 70th in adjusted offensive efficiency, so with the slowed pace early and the Aztecs’ inability to score, I think this starts off a grind.
No. 5 Miami vs. No. 1 Houston (7:15pm ET)
Midwest Regional Semifinal — Kansas City, MO
Much like Tennessee and FAU on Thursday night, I lean to the favorite in this game, but would rather see how the game goes and consider betting in-game. Miami’s guards could potentially give Houston some trouble, and we know the Cougars are not the best team early in games. My strategy here is going to be to sit back and see if the Hurricanes start hot. If they do so without any red flags on the Houston side, I’ll look to fire on Houston at halftime. I think they ultimately win this game and are a safe parlay piece.
No. 15 Princeton vs. No. 6 Creighton (9:00pm ET)
South Regional Semifinal — Louisville KY
No. 3 Xavier vs. No. 2 Texas (9:45pm ET)
Midwest Regional Semifinal — Kansas City, MO
Creighton/Texas ML Parlay (-120) — 1.5-units
I have a Creighton future I mentioned above, and am not hedging it here. In fact, I’ll add to it by using them as a parlay piece to buy down Texas. Without taking anything away from impressive wins by Princeton, they also got dreadful performances from both Arizona and Missouri. Creighton has the balance it takes to make a deep tournament run, and an elite five it can put on the floor without any holes. The Blue Jays also have a terrific coach, and plenty of time to prep. I’d be flat out shocked if they lost this game.
Meanwhile, with Texas growing to -4.5, I’d opt to surpass the points and just go for the win here. I’m already looking ahead to backing the Longhorns to win this region with a play on them in a potential showdown with Houston, which means I like them in this game. Xavier gets strong guard play and has a solid big to anchor the lineup, but Texas feels like it just does a lot of the same things better. Xavier is dangerous on offense, but we’ve seen them come undone defensively on plenty of occasions. Texas has that key balance we’re looking for, ranking top-15 in KenPom on both ends of the floor. Ultimately I think that balance from a battle-tested Big 12 team gets it done here.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.