This Thursday has 11 games on the schedule and many of them have important playoff implications. Calgary, Nashville, Winnipeg and Seattle are all in action and all vying for one of the final few playoff spots in the Western Conference. The Nashville Predators are one of the biggest favorites on the slate today sitting at -260 on the Moneyline at home against the Chicago Blackhawks. The biggest overall favorites are the Florida Panthers, who are -360 home favorites against the Montreal Canadiens. Florida versus Montreal is the only game with a 7.0 goal total today, although there are seven other games with 6.5 totals (as of writing) so we could see some totals shift throughout the day.
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Vegas Golden Knights vs Calgary Flames
Golden Knights Moneyline -120
The Flames and Golden Knights are two teams headed in vastly different directions. Vegas has been heating up of late and has taken control of the Pacific Division with a 7-2-1 record over its last 10 games. Vegas didn’t make any huge trades at the deadline but the addition of Jonathan Quick has paid massive dividends to date. The former King has been reinvigorated by his new environment, going 4-0-0 for Vegas in four starts, including a 33-save shutout just two starts ago against Carolina.
Meanwhile, the Flames need to win games just to stay in the playoff hunt but keep losing anyways. They’re 3-4-3 in their last 10 games and have blown vital chances at gaining ground with losses to the Ducks and Coyotes. Calgary has also been terrible in these tougher rest spots this season and is now 2-8 over its last 10 games, which involved a three games in four nights scenario. They have also struggled against the Golden Knights, going 0-8 in their last eight games played in Vegas. The -120 odds just for Vegas to win straight up look entirely too big considering the gap that has formed between these two teams of late.
Boston Bruins at Winnipeg Jets
Under 6.0 Goals +100
Both the Bruins and Jets head into this game reeling after bad losses. The Bruins uncharacteristically have dropped two games in a row, and both the losses have come to non-playoff teams in Detroit and Chicago. Boston doesn’t have any major injuries on the blue line or in net, so the poor stretch is likely due more to a lack of concentration than anything else. They’ve been a top defensive team all season ranking first in penalty-kill percentage and goals against, at 2.2 GAA per game.
The Bruins have been excellent under targets this season, hitting the under on their game totals 53% of the time. They’ve hit the under in seven of their last 10 games against Western Conference opponents. The Jets defense has been a little up-and-down lately but have been a great team at hitting the under this season, as well. The overall record under in Jets’ home games this season is 22-10-2 and it has hit 67% of the time.
With both teams looking to limit mistakes after allowing far more goals than usual in their last couple of outings, look for a more boring defensive game in Winnipeg today. Given the plus money we’re getting, the under 6.0 goals prop looks like the most appealing way to attack this game.
Seattle Kraken over 3.5 goals -125 and Oliver Bjorkstrand anytime goal +225
Seattle gets the gift of playing the San Jose Sharks today, a team that has now allowed 21 goals over its last four games alone. Seattle’s offense has fallen off a touch in terms of its expected goal rate but still sit at 12th in high-danger scoring chances created while San Jose has allowed the ninth-most high-danger scoring chances against this season.
We could certainly play Seattle at +140 on the Puck Line today, but that number has moved down a bit since opening and the Kraken’s goalies have not been stellar of late, allowing four or more goals against in three straight games. The -125 on the over 3.5 team total looks more promising and we can sweeten the odds a bit by adding in a bet on one of the Kraken players to score an anytime goal as well.
Oliver Bjorkstrand is currently sitting about 2% under his career shooting percentage on the season but has been shooting the puck more lately. He’s averaged 3.6 shots on net over his last five games and is a player who remains an integral part of the Kraken’s top six, especially their top power play unit. At +225, he looks ripe as a player to target in the anytime goal department and is a good way to take advantage of what should be a Kraken offensive breakout tonight.
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