We’ve reached a tough point in the NBA season when it comes to betting games. You really have to be patient for betting angles, especially with all the different strategies and motives teams have down the stretch. Teams are battling for different seeds, getting adjusted to post-deadline lineups, and maybe “lacking some motivation” with a prospect like Victor Wembanyama out there.
Even if we faded the “tanking teams” in a moneyline parlay on Tuesday, the Spurs still snapped a 15-game losing streak in Utah and ruined the parlays. If there’s a piece for parlays I like in the NBA on Wednesday, it’d be the Suns. But it’s not because of Kevin Durant’s debut, it’s more of a fade of the Hornets. Charlotte actually won three games out of the break, but with LaMelo Ball out for the season, hope is likely lost. Look for the Hornets to start to fall apart down the stretch.
As for this Wednesday betting card on DraftKings Sportsbook, I like a few player props. No action for me yet, and will post to Twitter if I fire on any of these plays, but I’m writing up a few spots I think carry some decent value.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
One of the fallouts from the trade deadline has been a massive increase in the role of Williams, following the Mason Plumlee trade to the Clippers. Charlotte is wisely giving its first-round pick more minutes, and the Duke product is making the most of the opportunity.
In seven games since Plumlee’s departure, Williams is averaging 12.1 points and 9.6 rebounds, just shy of a double-double. Williams has finished with a double-double in four of those seven games, and is growing more comfortable in his new role, with a double-double in three of his last four.
As for the points prop, Williams has now scored 12 or more points in four of his last five. The matchup against DeAndre Ayton isn’t nearly as imposing as you may think, and the Suns aren’t all that deep up front. Phoenix allows right around league average in terms of rebounds per game. Look for Williams to stay hot in this one.
On the other side of this game, everyone will be exited for the debut of Kevin Durant. His point prop sitting at 20.5 is tempting — even with limited minutes I would lean over against this soft Charlotte defense. But I think betting Paul’s assist prop is the more comfortable play.
Who knows how much Durant actually plays? But I think with the Suns at full strength, we see CP3 fall into the role of ultimate distributor. Especially in a game like this against a Hornets team that’s a double-digit dog and has been awful on defense.
Paul doesn’t need to score, and should put an extra emphasis on getting all his weapons involved in this one. He had 11 dimes in the previous matchup against Charlotte this season, and I could see him exceeding that in this one if you want to bet some alternate lines.
With the Pistons sitting both Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart, it’s been all about seeing what they have in Marvin Bagley and Wiseman — both former No. 2 overall picks that busted.
Wiseman’s production has picked up significantly over the past few games, averaging 13.7 points and nine boards. He’s been in double digits scoring in two of the games, and rebounding in two of the games, but only put them together for one double-double.
However, he’s coming off a 23-point game, and has a point prop now at 13.5. I’m not as concerned about the points here, so I think getting Wiseman up to 10 boards is a pretty realistic expectation in comparison to the +200 price tag.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.