This is it. Philly vs. KC in AZ. Let’s hope it’s a good one.
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It’s been a while since Mahomes got picked off. That works out great for this play — just means he’s due. Mahomes has thrown one pick in 60.2% of his 93 career games (regular season and playoffs). This dry spell can’t last, and Philly is the perfect team to bring it to an end.
Before this ongoing three-game stretch of clean performances, Mahomes had been picked off in 9 of 16 games. During that span, he had two stretches of consecutive games without an interception — both only lasted two games.
Meanwhile, the Eagles have logged an interception in 12 of 19 games. They didn’t get one last week, but San Francisco only threw the ball 17 times in that blowout. Still, that interception-less performance puts the Eagles in a spot to get one on Sunday. Throughout the season and postseason, they’ve only had one stretch of consecutive games in which they failed to pick off an opposing QB. (That lone stretch only lasted three games.)
The Eagles didn’t give up a single field goal in the first four weeks of the regular season. Since then, kickers have had multiple field-goal attempts in eight of 15.
Now, opponents didn’t necessarily log multiple field goals made in those games, and Butker only converted 75% of his attempts this season. However, four of his six regular season misses were from 50-plus yards out. He had an 88% success rate from everywhere else.
Moreover, Butker is five-for-five to start the postseason — and none of his kicks have been chip shots. The Chiefs can’t consistently settle for field goals, but they’ll have to from time to time against this tough Philly defense. Butker will get his opportunities.
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