We have almost made it. After nearly two full weeks, Super Bowl LVII is just a few short days away. The Chiefs and Eagles will square off in the final game of the season, and there is no shortage of options to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.
One of the more unique ways to bet on the game is with Novelty Props. Let’s dive into some of my favorites for this contest.
When I wake up on Super Bowl Sunday, I’m looking forward to two things: Eating a bunch of really unhealthy food and betting like a degenerate. I want to start getting my action down as soon as possible, and the coin toss is no exception.
Fortunately, the good folks at DraftKings have done the right thing and priced both heads and tails at +100. We all know that the coin toss is a 50-50 proposition, so it’s nice to see it priced as such. Even though I want to be a degenerate, I still don’t want to get ripped off.
As for the bet itself, we all know that tails never fails. Well, at least it only fails around 50% of the time. Heads has been on a bit of a heater recently, landing in four of the past five Super Bowls. However, we had a run of four straight tails before that.
Does that mean that tails is due? That math would tell you no, but the Super Bowl is not about math. Tails is getting back on the board.
I always enjoy these props. Essentially, taking the over on the jersey number of the first scorer gives you Travis Kelce, Miles Sanders, Patrick Mahomes and Kadarius Toney, as well as some of the more peripheral options. There are more viable first-touchdown scorers with the under, but the over is available at better than even money and gives you the top two touchdown threats overall: Kelce and Sanders. Kelce has scored the first touchdown in each of the Chiefs’ first two playoff games, and he led all players in Pro Football Focus expected touchdowns during the regular season. Sanders had the Eagles’ first touchdown in the NFC Championship, and his 11 touchdowns ranked second on the team during the regular season. I am a firm believer in quality over quantity, so I’m happy to take the over at plus-money.
It may seem counter-intuitive to take the over on 11.5 with the first touchdown scorer and the under on 160.5 for all touchdown scorers, but the majority of the scoring in this contest should come from low-numbered players. Hurts is No. 1, so a touchdown from him barely impacts this number. Devonta Smith, A.J. Brown, Jerick McKinnon and Isiah Pacheco all check in at 11 or less, so they’re not going to have a huge impact, either.
Essentially, we need to fade multiple scores from players who are above Sanders (26), and that seems very doable. I obviously like Kelce’s chances of finding the paint, but there are only two other offensive players in this game who have scored this season with a jersey number above 35: Dallas Goedert (88) and Justin Watson (84). Goedert is currently priced at +150 for an anytime touchdown, while Watson is available at +550. Both players combined for just five touchdowns during the regular season, so it’s very reasonable for both players to be held out of the paint in this contest.
We could have a “death by 1,000 paper cuts” scenario if this is a really high-scoring game, and there’s always the chance for a fluky defensive score. That said, as long as Watson and Goedert don’t score, I think this wager goes under.
Ok, I’m not actually betting on these props. Betting on anything at these types of odds is probably a bad long-term decision. They offer extremely minimal upside, but the downside is enormous.
However, I would much prefer taking those odds than betting the “yes” in either category. The Scorigami “yes” is priced at +2000, while the Octopus is +1400. From a pure math perspective, those might be the two worst wagers on the entire board.
If you are unfamiliar with either of these terms, betting the “yes” on Scorigami essentially means you’re betting on the Super Bowl to end with a different final score than any other game in NFL history. There have been thousands of NFL games over the past century, so there aren’t a ton of unique scoring combinations left. You would ultimately need a really weird low-scoring game with multiple safeties or a really high-scoring game to have a shot. It goes without saying that +2000, which translates to an implied probability of 4.76%, is not an accurate representation.
As for an Octopus, that happens when the same player who scores a touchdown follows it up with a two-point conversion. That’s a bit more likely than a Scorigami, but it’s still way less likely than the +1400 odds would suggest.
I’m all for placing some fun long-shot wagers on the Super Bowl, but there are so many better ways to do it. Build a single-game parlay. Try to guess the correct score. Take some alternate yardage props. Just stay away from these two sucker bets.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.