We got a barnburner last week, cashing on Cowboys Team Total OVER 27.5 (by nearly two touchdowns). This week might look just a tad bit different, as the Patriots head to Pittsburgh to play the Steelers.
Let’s take a look at a betting angle on DraftKings Sportsbook that I like for this ugly AFC matchup.
UNDER 30 (-110) — 2-units
Get ready to set the sport of football back about 100 years in a game these guys might as well be wearing leather helmets in.
We’ve all seen the stat floating around about the Patriots practically accomplishing the impossible — three straight losses, all while holding their opponent to 10 points or less in each game. New England made the move to Bailey Zappe during a loss to the Giants, and in his first start of the season last week, managed to get shutout by the Chargers.
The Pats are the lowest scoring team in the NFL, averaging 12.3 points per game. That number drops to 10.8 points per game on the road — also an NFL-worst. Simply put, this offense is averaging 4.3 points per game over the last month, and now have to go on the road on a short week to play a Pittsburgh defense that ranks sixth in the NFL in points allowed.
While the Steelers are battling for a playoff spot, let’s not expect fireworks from them in this one. Kenny Pickett went down on Sunday and has since had surgery, which turns things over to Mitch Trubisky at quarterback. Whether you consider that an upgrade or not, it’s certainly a tough time to have to make at QB move on the short week, particularly for an offense that already ranks just 28th in points per game at 16.
Meanwhile, as laughable as the Patriots have been, the defense has been solid. The D has played its way into the top half of the NFL during this recent stretch, giving up just 8.7 points per game over the last three games.
I know we’re talking about a historically low under here, but these are not offenses that have it in them to surprise us on Thursday night. An over in the game would require some fluky special teams or defensive touchdowns, so I’ll take my chances.
These teams are a combined 19-5 to the under this season, and I expect that to continue, even at a depressed number.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.