We’ve made it to the games that matter here on New Year’s Day, and the heavyweight matchup of the College Football Playoff is Michigan taking on Alabama for a trip to the Natty. Here’s how I’m backing this one on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Alabama vs. Michigan (January 1, 5pm ET)
Alabama +1.5 (-110) — 2.5-units
Michigan is going to wind up being the “sharp” side of this one, with bets piling in on Alabama, but very little line movement. I’ll be riding with the public and rolling with the Tide here, as the matchup is simply too favorable for Alabama for me to pass this one up.
‘Bama’s win over Georgia is obviously going to attract attention and make them a public play, but if there’s a team that can handle being a public darling, it’s this team — particularly on long rest. Coaching advantage is in ‘Bama’s favor here, so with a month to prepare rather than a week, I feel that should really help out the Crimson Tide. Saban also made some genius in-game adjustments in the SEC Title game against Georgia, which could come into play in this one. In many ways Michigan just reminds me of a slightly weaker Georgia team, which could help Saban in his preparation.
What I loved about Alabama’s victory over UGA was that they were able to control the game on the ground against an elite rush defense. If they can do that again here against Michigan, it’ll open up the passing game down the stretch, which proved crucial back on December 2nd.
As for Michigan, the wins against Penn State and Ohio State were awesome, and nothing to talk down about — they also weren’t wins over top SEC-level competition. Outside of those two games, the Wolverines played one of the softest schedules in the country. I think this is a step up in class for Michigan, and while I don’t think this is going to wind up a blowout at all, a tight game should also work in Alabama’s favor.
Roll Tide roll.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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