Week 17 got started on Thursday night in dominating fashion, as the Browns took care of business against the Jets, 37-20. Joe Flacco continued to make his case for Comeback Player of the Year, as his odds on DraftKings Sportsbook have fallen all the way down to +100 after another 300-yard performance. We have an enticing NFC matchup on Saturday with Dallas and Detroit, followed by a 14-game slate on Sunday. There will be no Monday Night Football this week. Below are my favorite Prop Bets for this weekend’s action.
RB Kyren Williams Over 93.5 Rush Yds (-115)
Since his return from injury on November 26th, Williams has played in five games and hit this total on four occasions. The Rams have been feeding him the rock down the stretch of this season, as he’s averaging 22.2 rushing attempts per game in his last five. What’s surprising is he’s actually making the most out of his carries, averaging 5.41 yards per attempt over this stretch. The Giants haven’t exactly been stellar against the run this year, ranking 29th in the league as they give up 134.2 yards per game on the ground. I fully expect Williams to get 20+ carries once again on Sunday, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he found himself in the end zone.
TE Isaiah Likely Over 42.5 Rec Yds (-115)
Likely has hit this total in three of his last four games, and I think he will do the same once again on Sunday. Over the last month, he’s averaging 5.75 targets, 4.25 catches and 62.25 yards per game. It took Likely a while to get involved in this offense when Mark Andrews went down, but over the last month, he’s proved that he is a big part of this Ravens passing attack. Miami has been stingy with their pass defense this season, only conceding 205.7 yards per game. Despite that, I believe the Ravens offense will still be able to have success in front of their home crowd, and ultimately, I think Likely will continue his recent success in the passing game.
QB CJ Stroud Over 257.5 Pass Yds (-115)
Stroud is back on Sunday, and I fully expect him to return to his old self after a two-week absence. The Texans went 1-1 in games he missed, so at 8-7, the Texans will have a ton of motivation to win with a playoff spot on the line. Stroud was far from his best the last time we saw him, only passing for 91 yards against the Jets before exiting. The conditions in that game were far from ideal, and his offensive line did not do him any favors. I like Stroud to bounce back in his return this weekend, and let’s keep in mind that he went over this total in five straight games before facing New York. He will be facing the Titans, who are below average against the pass, ranking #18 in the league. I think Stroud hits this total with ease, and I would be surprised if Tennessee kept him under the 300-yard mark.
QB Bailey Zappe Under 205.5 Pass Yds (-115)
Zappe is coming off a big win on the road against Denver but, unfortunately, is running into a Bills defense that is pretty good against the pass at home. No opposing quarterback has thrown over this total against the Bills in Buffalo since October 26th. It is now “football weather” in Buffalo, making home-field advantage a very real thing. Zappe has hit this total in two of his four starts this season, but I expect him to struggle mightly this Sunday. The Patriots have been eliminated, while Buffalo are in control of their own playoff destiny if they win out. The Bills intensity in front of a home crowd will be hard to match, and I think they win this one big, and Zappe really struggles along the way.
RB Derrick Henry Under 58.5 Rush Yds (-115)
Henry has had a season full of ups and downs. Looking at his seven most recent games, he has hit this total only three times. He faced off against the Texans two weeks ago in what was the worst performance of his season and maybe even his career. He rushed 16 times for 9 yards, averaging 0.6 yards per rush. The Texans have had a solid run defense all season, ranking in the top 10 against the run while only giving up 90.9 yards per game. It’s clear what Houston’s game plan entailed two weeks ago, and I’m sure that will be their game plan once again on Sunday.
RB James Conner Under 55.5 Rush Yds (-115)
Similar to Henry’s situation this week, Conner is facing a massive uphill battle on Sunday. The Eagles are eighth in the NFL in rushing defense, only allowing 95.2 yards per game. Conner hasn’t been healthy all season but in the six games he’s played since returning November 12th, he’s hit this total four times. Even so, this could be a game where Arizona is trailing for most of it, which would make rushing attempts few and far between. Between the Eagles rush defense and the way I see this game unfolding, I think it will be unlikely for Conner and the Cardinals to establish their running game the way they would like to.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is ciarandoyle77) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.