After a pretty nice run to get back to about even in NFL I got slammed last week, going 0-3 on my plays. Firing on just a game or two a week has been how I’ve handled NFL over the last couple months, but Week 17 is going to be an outlier. I haven’t loved many cards this season, just games here and there, but this week I actually have a ton of volume. Let’s go over what I like on DraftKings Sportsbook this week.
My 2023 NFL betting record entering Week 17 is 57-51-5 (-2.65-units).
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (Saturday)
Cowboys Team Total OVER 27.5 (-130) — 2.5-units
OVER 51.5 (-110) — 1-unit
I gave out this total last week on The Sweat as a lookahead, and after bouncing to 53.5, you can still get in on the game total at 52. However, given the spot that is taking shape for both of these teams this week, playing on the Dallas team total is going to wind up being my strongest play of the week.
As for why both teams should score in this game, Dallas is averaging 39.9 points at home this season, scoring no fewer than 30 in any of them — and that was back in Week 2 against the Jets. Meanwhile, the Lions offensive road struggles have been a popular topic, but that’s when they play outdoors. In the three indoor road games this season, Detroit scored 30 at Minnesota last week, 33 in New Orleans and 41 in Los Angeles. Should be a great spot for both teams to put up points in Jerry World.
Why I’m going heavier on the Cowboys putting up points is just the spot both teams are in. The Lions just clinched the division on the road last week, and now go on the road again on a short week. Look for that defense to get scorched by a Dallas offense that has lost two games in a row on the road, but returns home where they’ve dominated and desperately need a win.
Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts
Colts -3.5 (-108) — 2-units
The Raiders have been very fluky lately, getting shutout at home prior to dropping 63 on the Chargers and getting some people fired. But now the market is extremely high on them after a road win in Kansas City, which I felt said a lot more about the Chiefs.
Now Vegas has to go on the road to play an angry Colts squad that is coming off a bad road loss in Atlanta last week. Indy is still very much alive in the division, and playing for a playoff spot here. Expect a strong bounce-back here from the better team at home with a large coaching advantage and quarterback advantage.
Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears
Bears -2.5 (-112) — 1-unit
Speaking of that big win by the Falcons last week, I’m going to fade them on the road this week. Atlanta can look very good at times, when a capable quarterback is on the field and the coach doesn’t hold them back, but the Falcons also have to be playing indoors.
Justin Fields has been solid lately, as has the Chicago defense. But most notably, this game is outdoors, which should not be kind to the Falcons when we’re talking about New Year’s Even in Chicago. Expect the offense to take a big step back from last week.
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos
Broncos -3.5 (-110) — 2-units
Denver letdown a blowout loss in Detroit with a much worse home loss to the Patriots on Christmas Eve with a potential playoff spot on the line. Everybody seems to be out on this team, especially with the big news that Russell Wilson will be benched and the Broncos will move on from him.
I think the line move all the way down to around a field goal is a massive overreaction. Wilson wasn’t playing all that great anyway, and Jarrett Stidham has a big opportunity here. Stidham has looked decent in the past when given chances, and I think he will take advantage and the Broncos will rally around this move at home.
It also doesn’t hurt that the Chargers are absolutely dreadful, and I think they regress after that primetime showing against Buffalo. That was a terrific spot to back the Chargers, not just coming off the blowout loss in Las Vegas, but also rallying around the coaching change. Back to reality this week in a tough divisional road game.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Vikings ML (-110) — 1-unit
Another QB change, and while I’m not sure if I agree with sitting Nick Mullens in favor of Jaren Hall, it does get us a discount on the home team. The Packers have been all over the place this season, but I think on the whole we’ve seen much more bad than good from them on both sides of the ball.
Minnesota should be able to move the ball just fine at home, regardless of who’s under center. Meanwhile, the Vikings have been really solid on defense when they aren’t playing explosive offenses, which isn’t the case here. Think we’re getting the better team at home here at a pick’em, so I have to hop on.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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