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System: Under when home team is an underdog
This play has struggled over the last four weeks. In the 23 games played during that span, this system has gone 9-14. That makes the over in this setting an appealing trend. However, looking at recent seasons, there’s reason to believe the under will bounce back.
In 2021, this system hit over 55% of the time. Last season, it hit 65% of the time. While that 2021 hit rate suggests there’s room for the 2023 mark to regress, it’s only a smidge lower than this season’s hit rate. I’m more interested in that 2022 hit rate, which leaves a lot of room for growth — although, this system likely won’t get as high as it did in 2022 given where we are in the season.
Lastly, on the note of past seasons, the under is 6-3 in Week 17 over the last two seasons in games featuring a home underdog.
Here are the games that fit this system in Week 17:
- NYG vs. LAR
- WAS vs. SF
Between the two, I prefer NYG-LAR. When the Giants have been in this setting this season, the under has gone 5-1.
System: NFC underdog ATS vs. non-conference opponent
Doing something a little different here. This play is 23-20-4 on the season. That’s still a profitable success rate if the odds on each bet was -110. However, it’s not an overwhelmingly successful system — nor has it been throughout the last couple seasons.
In 2021, this play went 20-17-1. Last season, it went 19-24-2. While that 2021 rate is relatively close to this season’s, it’s still a dip. With both 2021 and 2022 having worse success rates than this season, I’m banking on some regression.
Carolina isn’t my favorite team to back, but CAR-JAX is the only game that fits this system in Week 17. But what’s good to see is Carolina is 2-1 in this setting this season, and the Jaguars failed to cover the one time they were favored against an NFC team this season.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.