The second to last week of the NFL regular season gets started with an AFC battle between the Jets and Browns. New York is already out of playoff contention, while Cleveland is still mathematically alive for the #1 seed in the conference. New York has only won one game outside of MetLife Stadium all season, so it’s safe to say this will be a very one-sided article for what hopefully is a lob-sided game. Below are some of my favorite bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Thursday Night Football.
I don’t think this is enough points for Cleveland. The Jets are starting Trevor Simiean on the road, on a short week, against the best-passing defense in football. Even though New York has won two of their last three, they have been absolutely atrocious on the road this season. In the five games they have played outside their home stadium, they are 1-4 and have been outscored 129-59.
Meanwhile, the Browns have had a significant home-field advantage this season, going 7-1 so far in Cleveland. Their only home loss of the season came in Week 4 against the Ravens, who have the best record in the conference. In their eight home game this season, Cleveland has outscored their opponents 164-105.
I could see this game getting out of hand for the Jets, as the Browns have a top-10 rush defense to go along with the best pass defense in the game. Their defense is particularly good at home, as they only give up 110.5 pass yards and 87.4 rush yards per game this season. I think Vegas has ultimately got the spread wrong here, and the Browns win by two touchdowns or more.
Ford has led the Browns in rushing attempts in each of their last three games, and my expectation is that he will do that once again on Thursday. Ford’s recent performances haven’t been great, as he hasn’t hit this total in each of his last two games. However, both of these games came against top 10 rushing defenses, which is far from what the Jets are.
Although New York is great against the pass (#2 in the NFL), they are suspect against the run, ranking in at #24. The Jets give up 126.2 rush yards per game, and it would be wise for the Browns to try to attack their defense that way. Ford should get a ton of opportunities Thursday, along with his teammate Kareem Hunt. Hunt has only rushed for 19 yards over the past two weeks, so it seems unlikely that he will get more touches than Ford.
On what should be a cold and windy December night in Cleveland, 46.5 does not seem like enough yards for the Browns lead running back against a below-average run defense.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is ciarandoyle77) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.