We’re entering the home stretch of Bowl betting season, and as games approach, sometimes a betting angle becomes more clear. Here’s how I’m betting the Fenway Bowl on DraftKings Sportsbook, which takes place on Thursday, December 28 in Boston.
SMU vs. BC (Thursday December 28, 11:00 am ET)
UNDER 48 (-110) — 1-unit
1H UNDER 23.5 (-110) — 1-unit
Pretty big mismatch here with SMU coming to Boston as a top-25 team to play the local BC Eagles at Fenway Park. Feels like a bad spot for both teams entering this one. Sure, BC gets a home game here in terms of location, but it’s still going to feel different playing in a baseball stadium. Bowl season is a fun time of year to travel to some cool locations, so we could see a bit of a letdown factor here just staying home in gloomy Boston.
SMU certainly has to feel let down in this spot. A nationally ranked team that just dominated Tulane in the AAC Championship game, and yet they don’t swing a big bowl game — in fact, they go on the road to play a much worse team.
The Mustangs should be able to run away with this one if they want, but I’ll take the under angle for several stronger reasons than both teams just being a bit letdown by who/where they are playing.
Let’s start with both the weather and kickoff time — looking like it should pour rain throughout this game, which certainly shouldn’t help either offense. Shouldn’t be too windy, which is typically the major factor in totals. But if SMU builds a lead here, they should be content to grind some clock and look to escape healthy, rather than looking to put up any style points. On top of that, we have a uniquely early kickoff — 11 a.m. ET on a Thursday, which is tough to get up for for anybody, but SMU coming east probably works against them a bit, too.
With the inaugural Fenway Bowl finishing 24-7 in favor of Louisville over Cincinnati last season, we already saw this game feature limited scoring in better playing conditions. I think we see a similar type of final score in SMU’s favor in this one.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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