My favorite NBA system is in play tonight, but that’s not all I like on this promising Wednesday slate.
While Jordan Poole has been… doing his thing, we’ll say, Tyus Jones has been helping bettors out quite a bit. Among the players in action on Wednesday, Jones has been one of the best against his points prop this season at 20-9 to the over.
Now, Jones hasn’t consistently been scoring over 13.5 points per game every night this season. In fact, he’s only gone over this number 12 times in 29 games. However, he’s gone over this number six times in nine opportunities this month.
More importantly, Wednesday will mark the 11th game in which Jones’ points prop increased game-to-game after the over hit in the previous game. In the prior 10 games where this applied, the over hit six times. Also, the over on Jones’ points prop is 3-1 when he’s playing on the second leg of a back-to-back.
While this game’s total has yet to go below 224, it has fluctuated quite a bit between that mark and 226.5. The betting splits indicate the sharps are all about the under, which could lead to this number dipping down again if that continues to be the case. However, for all this movement, it seems like this game’s total will settle in the range it continues to stay in.
As for why I have zero problem with going against the sharps: my favorite NBA system is in play. When an underdog in a Western Conference battle is playing on the second leg of a back-to-back, the over is 18-8-1 (66.7%). Over the past two seasons, this play has been successful over 57% of the time — but not more than 58%. Now, that does mean regression is likely in order. There has been some throughout December after a red-hot start, but the system’s 7-5 (58.3%) hit rate this month is still a very good number.
In this setting, the Rockets are 2-1 to the over and those three games have averaged an output of 235 points. When the Suns are the favorite in a game that fits this system, the over is 3-0 and the average total is 235 points. Overall, games that fit this system have averaged 232 points per game this season.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.