Welcome to the DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Splits and Picks series! The goal of this daily article is to bypass the noise and bias of opinion-driven betting and instead focus on the cold hard data, thereby allowing bettors to make wagers based on their heads, not their hearts.
At VSiN, we post DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Splits on a daily basis. It is constantly being updated as more bets roll in and has quickly become one of our most popular and most bookmarked pages on the website. Next to each game, we provide the percentage of real bets and dollars each side is receiving. By monitoring and dissecting the data, bettors are able to identify the most popular public plays, the top contrarian opportunities, and most important of all, the teams and sides taking in the most respected money from professional bettors.
Keep in mind that the “bets” column shows the percentage of overall tickets a side is receiving. This lets us know where the public is. If a team is getting 75% or more of the bets, that’s a public play that contrarian bettors will look to fade. The “handle” column represents the percentage of money or dollars a side is receiving. If a team is receiving at least 10 percentage points more money than bets, that’s a good indication of sharp money in their favor.
Today’s NBA Betting Splits on DraftKings Sportsbook
Top Sharp Bets
Mavericks at Rockets Under 223 (24% bets, 41% money)
This total opened as high as 233. However, we’ve seen it come crashing down a full ten points, all the way down to 233. What is the reason for the huge adjustment? Injuries. The Mavericks are missing several players tonight, most notably Luka Doncic who is out with a quad injury. As a result, we’ve seen a huge adjustment toward the under. The under is only receiving 24% of bets but 41% of money, signaling a 17 percentage point smart money discrepancy. Houston is 15-10 (60%) to the under this season, the 3rd-best under team in the NBA. The Rockets rank 26th in pace of play, 20th in offensive efficiency and 2nd in defensive efficiency. Two of the three lead refs tonight (Tom Washington and Brandon Adair) are considered “under refs,” with the under cashing 52% and 55%, respectively. The under also matches a “big spread under” system, as larger favorites tend to secure a big lead and then take their foot off the gas late, leading to lower-scoring games. Houston is favored by 8.5 points.
Wizards +12 at Warriors (25% bets, 51% money)
This line opened with the Warriors listed as a 12.5-point home favorite. The public expects an easy blowout win by the Warriors and isn’t scared off by the big spread. However, despite 75% of bets laying the points with Golden State, we’ve actually seen this line fall from Warriors -12.5 to -12. Why would the oddsmakers drop the spread to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already backing Golden State to begin with? Because pros have grabbed the road dog plus the points, triggering some sneaky sharp reverse line movement in favor of Washington. The Wizards are only receiving 25% of bets but 51% of money, indicating a 26 percentage point smart money discrepancy. Double-digit road dogs are 25-20 ATS (56%) this season. The Wizards are 11-6 ATS (65%) as a road dog this season. The Warriors are just 4-11 ATS (27%) as a favorite. Additionally, all three officials are considered “road refs,” with Gediminas Petraitis, Derek Richardson and Ben Taylor all between 52% and 55% ATS historically to the road team. This also might be a bit of a letdown spot for Golden State, who just upset the Celtics at home in overtime.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.