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System: Under on the total when an AFC team is a non-conference favorite
The preferred play came through last time this was one of the two systems we highlighted, but this trusty season-long system hadn’t been doing well this month until Week 15 rolled around. Following a 2-1 weekend, this play is 3-4 in December.
That said, there aren’t many systems that deserve the “season-long” billing this one gets. Despite a recent rough patch, this play is 29-15 (65.91%) this season. And in case you’re new here, this system was successful 64.4% of the time last season and 71.1% the season before that. the bounce-back that started in Week 15 can maintain.
There are two games that fit this system in Week 16:
- MIA vs. DAL
- NYJ vs. WAS
As if the season-long success of this system wasn’t enough, there’s a great subsystem in play that applies to both games. When the AFC team is the home team in this setting, this play is 22-9 (71%) to the under this season. Hard to not like both games on that info alone.
One note: MIA is only a -1 favorite as of writing. If DAL closes as the favorite, this game will no longer apply to the system.
System: Road NFC favorites ATS vs. non-conference opponent
Spinning off the system that led to us taking the Lions -4.5 in Week 15, NFC favorites ATS vs. non-conference opponent, we’re getting a bit more precise in Week 16.
The larger system is 16-10-2 on the season. Very sound success rate, for sure. That would open us up to four potential plays in Week 16. But after digging deeper, there’s a subsystem I’d rather zero in on.
When NFC teams are road favorites against AFC teams, they’re 8-4-1 against the spread. That means they’re 8-6-1 ATS when they’re in this setting at home, which is still an OK number. But while those success rates are only separated by a couple games, one is right around a break-even hit rate and the other is north of 60%. So, SEA -3.5 is the way to go — and good on you if you moved on this when the spread was 2.5 (now a -144 play as an alt-line option).
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.