clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

NFL Betting Systems for Week 16: Football Picks, Best Bets, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Nick Friar examines the best betting systems that are in play for Week 16 of the NFL season.

New York Jets v Miami Dolphins Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images

With this article, I’m highlighting the new Systems feature available in DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub. Check out the feature for yourself to find appealing systems in play this week!

Speaking of new DraftKings Sportsbook tools, customers can now utilize the new Search function on the DraftKings Sportsbook app to find DK Network articles and bets — all in one place!

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.


System: Under on the total when an AFC team is a non-conference favorite

The preferred play came through last time this was one of the two systems we highlighted, but this trusty season-long system hadn’t been doing well this month until Week 15 rolled around. Following a 2-1 weekend, this play is 3-4 in December.

That said, there aren’t many systems that deserve the “season-long” billing this one gets. Despite a recent rough patch, this play is 29-15 (65.91%) this season. And in case you’re new here, this system was successful 64.4% of the time last season and 71.1% the season before that. the bounce-back that started in Week 15 can maintain.

There are two games that fit this system in Week 16:

  • MIA vs. DAL
  • NYJ vs. WAS

As if the season-long success of this system wasn’t enough, there’s a great subsystem in play that applies to both games. When the AFC team is the home team in this setting, this play is 22-9 (71%) to the under this season. Hard to not like both games on that info alone.

One note: MIA is only a -1 favorite as of writing. If DAL closes as the favorite, this game will no longer apply to the system.


System: Road NFC favorites ATS vs. non-conference opponent

Spinning off the system that led to us taking the Lions -4.5 in Week 15, NFC favorites ATS vs. non-conference opponent, we’re getting a bit more precise in Week 16.

The larger system is 16-10-2 on the season. Very sound success rate, for sure. That would open us up to four potential plays in Week 16. But after digging deeper, there’s a subsystem I’d rather zero in on.

When NFC teams are road favorites against AFC teams, they’re 8-4-1 against the spread. That means they’re 8-6-1 ATS when they’re in this setting at home, which is still an OK number. But while those success rates are only separated by a couple games, one is right around a break-even hit rate and the other is north of 60%. So, SEA -3.5 is the way to go — and good on you if you moved on this when the spread was 2.5 (now a -144 play as an alt-line option).


The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!


All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.


The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.