It’s Week 16 of the NFL season, which means this is the third to last week of the regular season. This week is especially important because of the holidays, as we want to make sure to stay jolly after our bets settle. Hopefully, we can find some winners on DraftKings Sportsbook to make this holiday season just a little bit sweeter. For this weekend’s slate, we have two games on Saturday, 10 on Sunday, and three on Christmas day. Below are my favorite prop bets for the weekend slate.
K Tyler Bass Over 2.5 PAT Made (-135)
The last time we saw the Chargers play football, they gave up nine touchdowns to the 6-8 Las Vegas Raiders. This week, they will face off against a red-hot Bills team that just put up 31 points on a pretty good Dallas Cowboys team. While I don’t think the Chargers will give up that many points again, I do think they will give up at least three touchdowns. The Bills are coming off back-to-back wins against the Chiefs and Cowboys, while the Chargers just fired their head coach and lost their starting QB to injury for the year. The Bills are sixth in points per game this season, and the Chargers have the #28 scoring defense. Despite their recent run of tough games, Buffalo has scored at least three touchdowns in three of their last four games. This all seems to mesh together into what should be a very dominant Bills win.
RB James Cook Over 95.5 Rush+ Rec Yds (-115)
Another Bills prop! James Cook and the Bills offense have been on an absolute tear lately, as last week, he put up over 200 combined scrimmage yards against a solid Cowboys defense. In fact, Cook has at least 100 scrimmage yards in each of his last five games. A big factor in those numbers has been Cook’s impact in the receiving game, as he’s averaging 44.4 receiving yards per game over his last five. Surprisingly, he is the Bills’ fourth leading receiver this year, only trailing Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, and Dalton Kincaid. He is third in the league in rushing yards and just needs 32 on Saturday to get to 1,000 for the season, and I think he will get a lot more than that.
WR Courtland Sutton Over 50.5 Rec Yds (-115)
This number seems pretty low to me, as the last time that Sutton did not hit this total was October 29th against the Chiefs. Since then, he has gone over this total in all six of his games and added four touchdowns along the way. The Patriots defense is middle of the pack against the pass, ranking 16th in the league. Sutton has been a consistent target for Russell Wilson since that Chiefs game, averaging 6.5 targets and 4.16 receptions per game. I also don’t hate a bet on Sutton to find the endzone in this game, as he has 10 touchdowns in 14 games.
QB Bryce Young Under 0.5 Pass TD (+130)
Fading Bryce Young has become a staple of this article, and we will continue that again this weekend. Last week, he went under his passing yards total for us, and hopefully this week, he will not throw a touchdown. It would be a surprise if he did throw one, considering it’s been a month since his last touchdown throw. November 19th against the Cowboys was his last one, and in the four games since, he hasn’t reached 200 passing yards or thrown a single touchdown. The Packers are middle of the pack in terms of the amount of passing touchdowns they’ve given up, as they’re T-14 in that category at 1.3 per game. In my opinion, anytime you can take a prop bet under that hasn’t hit in a month at plus money, you take it, and that’s what I’ll do this weekend with Young.
QB Sam Howell Under 213.5 Pass Yds (-115)
Heading into Week 11, Howell led the NFL in passing yards, but at this current moment in time, he sits at 7th in the league after a couple of shaky performances the last two weeks. He was held to 127 passing yards two weeks ago against the Dolphins, and last Sunday was held to 102 against the Rams. It is curious that he’s had such a big drop-off, and it makes me wonder if he’s dealing with an injury behind the scenes. This upcoming Sunday, he heads on the road to face the Jets, who are the second-best defense against the pass, only giving up 170.4 pass yards per game. Miami is ranked 10th against the pass, while the Rams sit at 22nd, so this will be a step up in competition compared to the last two weeks. This is a strange bet because Howell has hit the over on this total a ton earlier in the year, but the recent steep drop-off leads me to believe that it will continue this Sunday against a great pass defense.
RB Javonte Williams Under 55.5 Rush Yds (-115)
Williams is having arguably his worst season in the NFL, as his yards per carry number has dropped to 3.7 this season. He has gone under this total in eight of his 13 games this year. This is one of my favorite under-prop bets of the season because, in his five games against top 10 rushing defenses, Williams has not hit this total once in five attempts. Guess who’s coming to town on Sunday? Santa, of course, but also Bill Belichick and the Patriots, who have the second-best run defense in the NFL. The Patriots only allow 84.9 rush yards per game this season, and I have a hard time seeing Williams rising above that on Sunday, given his track record against good run defenses.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is ciarandoyle77) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.