Welcome to the inaugural edition of the DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Splits and Picks series! The goal of this daily article is to bypass the noise and bias of opinion-driven betting and instead focus on the cold hard data, thereby allowing bettors to make wagers based on their heads, not their hearts.
At VSiN, we post DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Splits on a daily basis. It is constantly being updated as more bets roll in and has quickly become one of our most popular and most bookmarked pages on the website. Next to each game, we provide the percentage of real bets and dollars each side is receiving. By monitoring and dissecting the data, bettors are able to identify the most popular public plays, the top contrarian opportunities, and most important of all, the teams and sides taking in the most respected money from professional bettors.
Keep in mind that the “bets” column shows the percentage of overall tickets a side is receiving. This lets us know where the public is. If a team is getting 75% or more of the bets, that’s a public play that contrarian bettors will look to fade. The “handle” column represents the percentage of money or dollars a side is receiving. If a team is receiving at least 10 percentage points more money than bets, that’s a good indication of sharp money in their favor.
Today’s NBA Betting Splits on DraftKings Sportsbook
Top Sharp Bets
This total opened at 247 and has risen to 247.5, signaling some respected money toward the over. The over is receiving 72% of bets but 88% of the money, indicating a 16 percentage point smart money discrepancy. When the total is 240 or more the over is 28-13 (68%) this season. When two teams from opposite conferences face off, as is the case here, the over is 54-38 (59%). The Pacers are 20-7 to the over, the top over team in the NBA. Indiana ranks 2nd in pace, 1st in offensive efficiency and 30th in defensive efficiency. The Grizzlies rank 10th in pace and just welcomed the return of star Ja Morant to the lineup. All three refs tonight (Ed Malloy, Natalie Sago and Jenna Schroeder) are considered “over refs,” cashing the over between 52% and 56% of the time, collectively. This total may seem high at first glance but there is still reason to bank on it flying over.
The Pelicans opened as a 1-point road dog and have completely flipped to a 3.5-point road favorite, signaling sharp “dog to favorite” line movement. New Orleans is receiving 63% of bets but 89% of the money, indicating a 26 percentage point smart money discrepancy. This is also a tough schedule spot for the Cavaliers, who are playing the second leg of a back-to-back and their third game in four days. Fading teams on the second leg of a back-to-back is 65-53 ATS (55%) this season. Cleveland is dealing with a plethora of injuries and will be without Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland and Evan Mobley. Those looking to back the Pelicans but wary of laying the points because it’s moved so much could instead target New Orleans on the moneyline at -165.
This line opened with the Thunder listed as a 4.5-point home favorite. The public thinks “the wrong team is favored” and they’re rushing to the window to grab the points with Los Angeles, who is red-hot having won nine straight games. However, despite 65% of bets taking the points with the Clippers, we’ve seen the line move further toward the Thunder, -4.5 to -6. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Oklahoma City, with pros “fading the trendy dog” Clippers. The Thunder are only receiving 35% of bets but 80% of money, indicating a 45 percentage point smart money discrepancy. This is also a tough schedule spot for Los Angeles, who is on the second leg of a back-to-back while the Thunder are rested and haven’t played since Monday.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.