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NFL Monday Week 16 Best Bets: Picks, Predictions, Odds to Consider on DraftKings Sportsbook for the NFL Christmas Day Games

Pearce Dietrich gives his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 16 Monday Christmas Day slate.

San Francisco 49ers v Arizona Cardinals Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images

Merry Christmas! The gifts have been given. The kids are occupied. It’s time to sit on the couch and watch a full day of NFL games. DraftKings Sportsbook is here to make this special day even more special. Check out the NFL best bets for the Week 16 Monday Christmas Day Football matchups. The action kicks off with the Chiefs hosting the Raiders at 1:00 p.m. ET. That game is followed by the Giants at the Eagles at 4:30 p.m. ET. Finally, the night cap with or without eggnog — your choice — concludes the day with Monday Night Football at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Ravens take on the 49ers.

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs -10 (-108)

Forget about the Christmas movie marathons. The NFL has three games spaced throughout the entire day. Once the presents are unwrapped and the ham is in the oven, it’s time to throw the Raiders-Chiefs game on the screen. Two weeks ago, this AFC West matchup looked like Charlie Brown’s initial Christmas Tree. The tree got spruced up when the Raiders dropped 63 points in their Week 15 Thursday Night Football game. The same Raiders lost 3-0 the week before in the lowest scoring NFL game in 16 years. What will be at the bottom of the Raiders’ stocking on Christmas afternoon? Will it be a lump of coal or candy and lotto tickets?

The Raiders aren’t the only team with problems. The Chiefs do not look like their normal selves. This team looks very beatable. Everyone is waiting for the Chiefs to turn it on, but this season feels different. Do they have the offensive firepower to get it done? Their defense has improved this season, but their offensive skill position players seem to be lacking skill. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are whining and complaining. This is not the look of a Super Bowl contender. The Bills reentered the chat last week when they embarrassed the Cowboys. The AFC is up for grabs. It’s time for the Chiefs to make a statement

A statement would be a cover and then some. The Chiefs have only covered two of their last seven games. One of those covers was Nov. 26 against the Raiders. They were favored by 11 points and won by 14. The Raiders have struggled to cover the spread all season. They have covered seven times. Six of those covers were outright wins. It’s hard to imagine an outright win. That would be a Christmas miracle. A loss is more likely. When the Raiders lose, they lose. They’re 1-7 ATS in losses. For that reason, lay the points and assume the Chiefs get back on track.

New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Giants +11 (-110)

It was a nice run while it lasted. There’s nothing like earning several meaningless late season wins and throwing away NFL Draft capital. A top-5 pick could have really helped the Giants’ offensive line. Then again, they drafted a tackle with the 2022 No. 7 pick and took a center in the second round of 2023. There’s just no hope for this line. Without blocking, nothing works. Smoke-and-mirror schemes have to be designed. Occasionally, the magician pulls a rabbit out of his hat. Most of the time, the illusionist drowns strapped in locked chains enclosed in a small tank of water.

So much for the pleasant holiday imagery. New York fans don’t mind. Their perspective of the Giants is much less flattering. This team stinks and a beat down is coming. Of the six teams on Monday’s Christmas Day slate, the Giants are the leading contender to receive a lump of coal. Jalen Hurts has a bag full of coal and is ready to hop down the chimney in East Rutherford.

Where did Hurts get the coal? It was given to him last Monday by — not Santa — Drew Lock. It was easy to dismiss the Eagles’ recent struggles as a product of their schedule. Let’s pump the brakes on that. Philly has problems. Hurts’ health hindered his heroics on Monday Night Football. Oddly enough, he could run but could not pass. One would assume his Week 15 illness would affect his cardio and quickness. So what is up with their passing attack? That question is why the Eagles’ struggles can no longer be ignored. Their pass defense was already questionable. Add the Eagles’ offense to the list. The Eagles’ new offensive coordinator has struggled to replicate last season’s dynamism. If the injury bug hits, then the season could be over for the Eagles.

As bad as it is in Philadelphia, it’s much worse in New York. The Eagles will win at home, but can they cover the 10.5 points? That’s a lot of points for a struggling offense. That’s a lot against a rival. That’s not a lot for a team desperately in need of a turnaround performance. A fired-up Philly flies well over this spread. The current form Philly wins but does not cover.

The reflexive response is to investigate Philadelphia’s ATS when they were rolling and to step back from the small sample size of their most recent three game losing streak. The truth is that the Eagles were never really rolling. They started the season 10-1, but it was a bumpy 10-1. They have not covered a spread as a touchdown favorite this season. The largest spread that they have covered was 5.5 points on Sep. 25 against the Buccaneers. The other six covers were as underdogs at Kansas City (21-17 outright win) and as 3.5-point favorites or less. It’s painful to do this, but 11 points is too much to cover for a team living off of last season’s reputation.

Baltimore Raves vs. San Francisco 49ers

49ers -5 (-108)

DraftKings saved the biggest present of all for Monday Night Football. Not only is this a possible Super Bowl preview, but DraftKings users can throw in a little something special in the eggnog by making wagers on the Christmas evening game. DraftKings Sportsbook offers a variety of ways to wager on this matchup, but we’ll stick to the traditional route. It’s been a long day — no more heavy lifting. The kids have finally worn themselves out. Not a creature is stirring. It’s time to make a simple point-spread pick and enjoy a great game.

Who are we kidding? The Ravens are a good AFC team. The AFC is down this year. The 49ers may be an all-time team. Popular sports betting and DFS X accounts have been posting Brock Purdy infographics this week. The once unknown quarterback leads the NFL in nearly every statistical category. The MVP award is his. Hand him the Lombardi trophy now while we’re at it. This is not new or unheard of. Plenty of QBs found success early in their careers — Dan Marino, Ben Roethliberger and Patrick Mahomes. Even unexpected stars have emerged like Tom Brady and Kurt Warner. Brock Purdy is for real and the 49ers are stacked.

Meanwhile, the Ravens are hanging on. Mark Andrews is gone. They lost Keaton Mitchell last week. No one on the offense has stepped up. Their pass catchers are secondary and tertiary options, and that’s being kind. Lamar Jackson is going to have to do everything, and every team knows it. Every opponent will scheme for lone Lamar. This is too much to ask from Jackson. The Ravens will beat lesser opponents, but they cannot run with the Niners. No one can.

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All betting odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.