We get a stretched out NFL Week 16 with the holiday here, with multiple games on Saturday, Sunday and Monday. As I’ve been doing lately, I’ll stick to just picking one or two of my strongest spots and going with those plays. Here’s a couple bets I like on DraftKings Sportsbook this week.
My 2023 NFL betting record entering Week 16 is 57-48-5 (+1.55-units).
Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins
Cowboys +1.5 (-110) — 1-unit
This is a battle of the frauds. I was very close to leaving this game alone, but think Dallas is worth a small play — and that’s after fading Dallas in Buffalo as my largest side of the NFL season. The Cowboys can only beat good teams at home, so why bet on them on the road? Well, the Dolphins can’t beat good teams at all.
Dallas has been fantastic off a loss, going back the last few seasons. But keeping it to 2023, the Cowboys are 3-0 SU/ATS off a loss, covering by an average of 15 points per game. Now, only one of those games was on the road, but they still came through in that spot.
Dallas was embarrassed last week in Buffalo, but the Bills are playing as well as anyone in the AFC right now, and Buffalo in mid-December is about as tough as it gets for the Dallas offense. A trip to Miami should be a bit easier to handle, and we have the Dolphins off the high of another blowout victory.
Miami has dominated lesser competition this season, but struggled against quality opponents. In the three games against teams that are currently over .500, the Dolphins are 0-3 against the Bills, Eagles and Chiefs, losing by an average of 16.3 points. This will be the first time they face a good team at home, but I think the spot sets up better for Dallas to turn the corner on the road, rather than Miami finally defeating a good team.
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers
Broncos/49ers ML Parlay (-105) — 2-units
Going to a moneyline parlay here, sitting at a cheaper price than a teaser. Denver comes off an embarrassing primetime loss in Detroit on Saturday night, dropping it to 7-7. The Broncos have still won six of their last eight, and have a golden opportunity to get a couple of home wins here and potentially sneak into the postseason.
Denver will play consecutive home games against the Patriots and Chargers, and because of the Saturday game, get an extra day or rest and preparation for this week’s Christmas Eve game. Bill Belichick is still getting decent effort out of his defense, but the effort hasn’t been enough given how poor the offense is playing. On the road in a tough place to play in a game Denver absolutely needs to keep its season alive, I have a tough time finding a path to victory for the Pats.
We get a potential Super Bowl preview in San Francisco on Christmas night, and it’s impossible for me to go against the Niners at this point. Baltimore has been the best road team in the NFL, but the best team they beat was probably Jacksonville last week in primetime (the Browns had no answer at QB when they played in Cleveland). This is a completely different test, and I expect a motivated Niners squad to look its best with the narrative of a potential Super Bowl preview buzzing around this game.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.