Been crawling back to about even in NFL lately, and done so by betting much fewer games. I’m just trying to stick to my strongest spot or two each week, and one jumps out this week in one of the more intriguing matchups on the board. Here’s a bet I like on DraftKings Sportsbook this week.
My 2023 NFL betting record entering Week 15 is 56-47-4 (-0.25-units)
Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills
Bills ML (-125) — 2-units
I posted this play early in the week, as it jumped out to me right away. It’s moved a little bit since, but still worth a play for the same amount.
The Cowboys have been running hot lately, coming off a massive and dominant win on Sunday night over the Eagles. It was a terrible spot for the Eagles coming into that game, and Dallas took advantage of having extra time off and not having to travel at all in the midst of a string of consecutive home games. Things are about to change for the Cowboys.
The Bills have been a letdown overall this season, but they came out of the bye and did what they needed to do by getting a win in Kansas City. That was a momentum builder for this team, keeping the door open to find a way into the postseason, where we know they’d be dangerous. To keep that door open, Buffalo is going to have to beat the Cowboys, but the spot sets up well for it.
As I mentioned, Dallas has been cruising lately, but all at home. The Cowboys average nearly 40 points per game at home this season — a number that drops to a pedestrian 23.7 on the road. Dallas is a perfect 7-0 at home, but just 3-3 on the road — losses coming at Arizona, Philly and San Francisco. The road wins aren’t impressive at all, though, coming over the Giants, Chargers and Panthers. I’m not convinced the Cowboys can beat a good team on the road, and Buffalo is going to be a very tough spot to play.
The Bills have been a top-five offense this season, and score more at home, where they average 29.7 points. But the defense is what really impresses me with Buffalo, ranking sixth in the NFL in points per game allowed. They jump up to second in the NFL in points per game allowed at home, surrendering just 14.5 per game, which ranks only behind Cleveland.
Combine the desperation spot for Buffalo with its defense at home against a Dallas offense that’s been worse on the road and this sets up as a spot for Dak Prescott and company to really slow down. We know the Cowboys can put up points at Jerry World, but going to Buffalo in mid-December might not be their cup of tea. I expect the Bills to find a way in this way.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.