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NFL Betting Systems for Week 15: Football Picks, Best Bets, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Nick Friar examines the best betting systems that are in play for Week 15 of the NFL season.

New England Patriots v Pittsburgh Steelers Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images

With this article, I’m highlighting the new Systems feature available in DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub. Check out the feature for yourself to find appealing systems in play this week!

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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.


System: NFC favorites ATS vs. non-conference opponent

The only game that applied to this system was MIN-LV in Week 14, which resulted in a push thanks to the game turning into a rock fight. Another NFC North team is in this setting, and they’re actually the lone fit for this trending system.

The Lions have ballooned to -4.5 favorites after opening as 2-point favs. Either way, they are in a setting which NFC favorites have covered 59.26% of the time this season.

Additionally, the Lions enter this week fresh off a loss. NFC favorites coming off a loss are 10-5-1 ATS against AFC teams. And while this scenario was a spot to fade NFC teams throughout 2022 (4-9-1 ATS), the system had a hit rate of 68.4% in 2021.


System: Under on total of AFC non-divisional games when home team is the underdog

The under has hit 58.54% of the time this season when the home team has been an underdog. Over the last four weeks, the play has only gone 11-11, but this is a system that could maintain its season-long rate. In 2022, it had a 65% success rate. It didn’t do as well in 2021, but a 55% hit rate isn’t going to scare me off. There are five games that fit that system this week, but there’s a subsystem I want to lock in on.

AFC games that feature a home underdog this season are 20-10 to the under. That fits two games in Week 15, both of which I like equally:

  • JAX vs. BAL
  • NE vs. KC

What’s even more appealing is neither game is a divisional contest. When the home team is the underdog in an AFC divisional game this season, the under is 9-6. Now, that 60% success rate is nothing to scoff at. However, a 73.5% hit rate is far more appealing, and that’s the rate the under is hitting at when the home team is an underdog in an AFC conference game between non-division opponents (11-4).


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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.


The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.