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NFL Betting Systems for Week 13: Football Picks, Best Bets, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Nick Friar examines the best betting systems that are in play for Week 13 of the NFL season.

NFL: NOV 26 Steelers at Bengals Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.


System: Under on the total when an AFC team is a non-conference favorite

We’re back at it with this system. For those who haven’t hopped aboard this train yet, this play has been very reliable over the last two seasons. In 2022, it hit 64.4% of the time. The year before that, it was successful 71.1% of the time.

With that being the case, there isn’t concern for regression despite the play’s 70.27% success rate this season (26-11) – and that’s factoring in this play has bloated a bit over the last four weeks, a span in which it went 11-3 (78.57%).

There are three games this system applies to in Week 13:

  • PIT vs. ARI
  • MIA @ WAS
  • KC @ GB

Another strong system has been under on the total when an AFC team is home in a non-conference game. On the season, that’s had a 64.86% success rate (24-13). Over the last four weeks, the system is 9-4 (69.23%).

Well, when we combine the two plays, we get a system that has a success rate of 73.1%. Now, that’s not enough to make MIA-WAS or KC-GB unplayable, but it does put PIT-ARI to the forefront of these three options.


System: Home underdog ATS coming off a loss

This system has effectively been a break-even play for those who’ve played this every time it’s been an option this season. Throughout the 44 games in which this system was applicable, the underdog is 23-18-3 (52.3%). But last season, this play had a 59.3% success rate. In 2021, its hit rate was just over 54%. Now, that 2021 success rate is a bit off from 2022’s, but it’s still good. More importantly, it indicates there’s room for this play to improve over the rest of this season.

There are four games this system applies to in Week 13:

  • WAS vs. MIA
  • NO vs. DET
  • NE vs. LAC
  • NYJ vs. ATL

Backing the Patriots to cover any number right now is a tough ask. Even with a 9.5 spread as of writing, asking Washington to cover vs. Miami feels dicey. That leaves us with the Saints and the Jets. While New Orleans is playable, the Jets get the slight edge between the two. The Falcons are 3-8 ATS while Detroit is 7-4 ATS. Also, road favorites coming off a loss are 18-9-1 ATS. Road favorites coming off a win, meanwhile, haven’t even covered 42% of the time this season.


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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.


The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.