It seems like we just keep getting week after week of tremendous college football cards, and the slates keep delivering — both in terms of entertainment and cashing tickets. Let’s hope for more of the same this weekend as we dive into my favorite plays on DraftKings Sportsbook.
My 2023 college football betting record entering Week 11 is 47-31-1 (+19.31-units).
Just to set the table here on a couple of things before we get to the plays — I won’t be making a play on the Michigan/Penn State game if you are entering the weekend neutral. That said, I do have a bet on Michigan to win the Big Ten at +210, and this is a huge game towards keeping that ticket in prime position. So I did play about 1-unit on Penn State with the points as a semi-hedge, and will hope Michigan wins while PSU covers.
I sat down with Doug Kezirian earlier in the week on the Unreasonable Odds Podcast and we talked through many of these games if you want to listen in.
Utah at Washington (Saturday 3:30 pm ET)
UNDER 50 (-112) — 1.5-units
It’s rare I play a PAC-12 under, but when I do, it always involves Utah with another team that has at least a half-decent defense. This is one of those scenarios. Utah is really tough up front and will have to do its best to try and make this game a grind against Michael Penix Jr. and company.
The Utes weren’t able to slow the Ducks when they hosted Oregon, but we still cashed the under on that game since Utah’s offense just wasn’t able to get it going. I think the Huskies will be able to play some solid defense here, while the Utes will also be trying to win the time of possession.
This one has already been hammered down from the opener, but I’m comfortable with it at 50. Could see something like a 24-14 win for the home team.
Rutgers at Iowa (Saturday 3:30 pm ET)
Iowa ML (-115) — 2-units
Iowa seems to just keep winning ugly, and I think we’ll see that again at home against Rutgers. Rutgers was in prime position to try and upset Ohio State, but let go of the rope in the second half. While I understand the respect they are getting in the market, dropping this to a near pick’em is a bit disrespectful.
While Iowa will struggle on offense, the difference on special teams and defense should be enough here. Expect one of those two units to put seven on the board and ultimately be the difference in this game. The Hawkeyes have been looking for more ways to get Cooper DeJean the ball (a defensive back that will be a high NFL pick), which could spark an unexpected play on offense.
Tennessee at Missouri (Saturday 3:30 pm ET)
Missouri ML (-102) — 2-units
Missouri just went through the grind with Georgia, covering but not winning, and that’s exactly what Tennessee is looking forward to next week when they host the Bulldogs. But first, the Vols have a really tough road stop at Mizzou, and I think we’ll see the Tigers win this one at home.
I understand that Tennessee has some advantages here when it comes to explosive plays, but I feel we’re overlooking how tough this Missouri team is. I will say, if Luther Burden does not play, I will likely buy off some of this play — Burden is the Tigers’ leading WR and suffered an injury during the UGA game.
But if Burden is on the field, I think he should be able to gash the Vols deep. He’s the difference maker, so if you didn’t bet the game early in the week like me, just hold off until we have his status.
USC at Oregon (Saturday 10:30 pm ET)
Oregon Team Total OVER 44.5 (-125) — 2-units
Oregon knows what it needs to do to reach the PAC-12 Championship and have a shot at the College Football Playoff, and it starts with throttling USC. The Ducks are hitting their stride at the right time, and need to keep putting up big numbers in case it’s needed to break the tie with another potential one-loss team if it comes down to making the CFP.
The Ducks dropped 63 at home against Cal last week, and I don’t expect much resistance from the Trojans. Here are the scores of USC’s opponents working backwards from their last game — 52 vs. Washington (35 first half), 49 at Cal (28 first half), 34 vs. Utah (who doesn’t have much of an offense), 48 at Notre Dame and prior to that it was 41 points to both Arizona and Colorado.
I’m expecting the Ducks to put their foot on the throttle here and keep it held down.
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