The tool allows us to toggle the tease total to see how a play has performed against various numbers, but I’ll be sticking to the default of 4 points to ensure -110 odds.
While Giannis Antetokounmpo exited early on Wednesday, he didn’t depart early enough to walk into Thursday’s game with a rest advantage over his teammates or the Pacers, all of which are playing on the second leg of a back-to-back. If there’s any advantage in this department, it goes to Indiana. The Pacers are in the middle of a homestand, whereas the Bucks are back on the road after playing at home vs. Detroit on Wednesday following a visit to Brooklyn on Monday.
More importantly, there are a few notable stats that favor Indiana in this one.
Underdogs coming off a win are 28-18-2 against the spread this season. On top of that, the Bucks have only managed to win by eight-plus points once this season.
Now, Milwaukee did win by eight-plus more than any other team last season, but a 51.7% hit rate isn’t overly convincing. Also, through eight games, the Pacers have lost by six points or fewer (or won) in six times.
Another system that’s been trending big-time applies to Orlando on Thursday. After a slow start, home underdogs have covered 13 times in the last 18 games they’ve played following a day off. (NOTE: This is a home game for Orlando despite it being played in Mexico City.)
Now, the Hawks have won by eight-plus in four of their seven games. If they maintained that rate, they’d probably lead the NBA in this very specific statistical category. NBA teams won by eight-plus only 30.4% of the time last season.
Furthermore, the Magic have lost by seven or fewer (or won) in five of their seven games this season. They’ve also covered four-point teasers in seven of their last eight divisional games.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.