The Monday work day is done. It’s time for Monday Night Football. DraftKings Sportsbook is here to make this special night even more special. Check out the NFL best bets for the Week 13 Monday Night Football matchup. The action kicks off with the Jacksonville Jaguars hosting the Cincinnati Bengals at 8:15 p.m. ET.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jaguars -8.5 (-110)
Joe Burrow is out and the Bengals’ offense is a mess, but what about their defense? The Bengals’ season is likely over. It’s still on life support. The Super Bowl is out of the question, but a meaningless playoff run that depreciates draft capital is still on the table. Who would want that? Lou Anarumo wants that. A month ago, the Bengals’ defensive coordinator was on the top of the 2024 list for prospective head coaching candidates. His name has tumbled down the list since. Anarumo needs to turn this defense around.
The Bengals allowed the Steelers’ offense to accumulate over 400 yards in Week 12. That’s not good, but yards do not matter. Points matter, and the Steelers were held to 16 points. The Steelers’ offense isn’t very potent. They did just fire their offensive coordinator. Regardless of their struggles, the Steelers had possession for 37:17 to the Bengals’ 22:43. The Bengals’ lackluster offense couldn’t stay on the field. Despite this possession disadvantage, the Bengals still had a chance to win in the end thanks to their defense.
The challenge will be much greater this weekend. The Bengals go on the road and face a team and fan base that rarely receives prime-time attention. Duval will be lit. Jacksonville’s offense is lit. Anarumo and the Bengals’ D will have their hands full on Monday Night Football.
It wasn’t long ago, when the hot-take talking heads were worried about Trevor Lawrence. With a 24/7 NFL news cycle, every player gets put under the microscope. The more popular the player, the larger the vivisection. The operation is over. Everything is fine. Lawrence and the Jags are dark horse Super Bowl contenders.
The Jags are 8-3 ATS and 7-1 ATS as favorites. They’ve won seven of their last eight games. Their only loss was to the 49ers — arguably the best team in the NFL, and San Francisco was coming off a bye and a bad home loss two weeks earlier. Jacksonville averages 23.1 PPG (12th). The Bengals average 19.1 PPG. The majority of those games were with Joe Burrow. That number drops to 18.2 PPG on the road. In one game without Burrow, they scored 10 points at home in Week 12.
Under 38 (-112)
Keep leaning on the under in 2023. Hammer it during prime time. In Week 12, the Sunday Night Football final total score was 30. That was 19 points below the over/under. Monday Night Football was a 22-point barnburner that ended up 21.5 points below the number set by oddsmakers. Even if this trend was due for regression, Cincinnati vs. Jacksonville is not the matchup that breaks the curse.
The under trends are so unbelievable that they require bullet points for emphasis:
- The Under is 29-9 (76%) in prime-time games
- The Under is 13-1 (93%) on Monday Night Football
- The Under is 58-28-1 on Monday Night Football since 2019
- The Under is 23-3 on Sunday and Monday Night Football in 2023
- The Under is 49-17 on Sunday and Monday Night Football over the last two seasons
- The Under is 106-73-1 (59.2%) overall this season
Sans Joe Burrow, the Bengals and the Steelers combined for a whopping 26 points in Week 12. The over/under was set at 36 points. The Jags have gone under the total in three of their last four games. Following a win, the Jags have gone over twice and under the total 71.4% of the time (five).
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