The holiday is over, but cheer up. It’s time for Monday Night Football. DraftKings Sportsbook is here to keep the holiday season rolling. Check out the NFL best bets for the Week 12 Monday Night Football matchup. The action kicks off with the Minnesota Vikings hosting the Chicago Bears at 8:15 p.m. ET.
Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings
Bears +3.5 (-120)
Monday Night Football features two mobile quarterbacks. That’s exciting for DFS. This is a best bets article. Total points are all that matter. Quarterback rushing yards isn’t the focus. How do the offenses look? What’s the shape of each defense? Those questions matter.
The Bears’ offense came to life with the return of Justin Fields. Their defense looked sharp against a potent Lions offense — at least for three and a half quarters. Then the Bears went into hibernation and blew a double-digit lead. They had a 98.2% chance of winning with just over four minutes remaining in their Week 11 divisional game. This season, teams were 83-0 in that situation. Their season might be over. As for the Vikings, they suffered a heartbreaker as well in Week 11. Their five-game win streak was snapped when the Broncos scored a touchdown in the closing minutes of the game. That loss does not feel as consequential. The Vikings could regroup but will the Bears?
It’s hard to measure the Bears’ offense based on one week. Fields looked good against a bad defense. They still lost. Last season when Fields looked good, they still lost. Over the last two seasons, when the Bears gave Fields the green light to run, the offense looks like a souped-up street car. They still found ways to lose and not cover. The Vikings offense wasn’t as dynamic last week. The Broncos defense — not the best D in the league but they’re getting better — limited Josh Dobbs and performed their newly learned trick: forcing turnovers (three takeaways in each of the last three games). Overall, the offenses should be fine. If Justin Jefferson is able to return, then the offensive edge has to be in favor of the Vikings at home.
The defenses are weaknesses. The Bears held the Lions in check for most of the game last week — most doesn’t count. Most of the time, they don’t even do that. There is a positive take away from their performance, but the collapse will likely linger into Week 12. The Vikings defense was steady in Week 11, but they were playing a below-average offense led by a quarterback that is an aging gunslinger that gets by on guts and barely tops 200 yards passing each week. The Vikings were supposed to win that game.
This line is awfully small. The Bears were left for dead heading into last week. They lost last week. Yet, they’re only slight road underdogs. The sentiment is that the Bears are not going into hibernation. The Sportsbook seems to believe that Justin Fields might wake this team up.
Justin Fields 100 rushing yards (+800)
The DraftKings Sportsbook understands the hype after last week’s game. This week their Weekly Special bet is a long shot. Typically, the Weekly Specials odds are much smaller and the wagers more probable. That’s not the case this week. It’s a YOLO long-shot bet on Justin Fields.
Most will label this as a throwaway bet. Taking Fields over 100 rushing yards is setting money on fire. It’s clearly an overreaction to one game. What if it’s an under reaction? What if it’s different this time? This could be the tip of the iceberg.
Fields eclipsed 100 yards rushing last week in his first game back from his thumb injury. It’s a small size but it’s a small sample size. Just as it’s easy to dismiss a performance due to sample size, it can be easy to be optimistic. Last week was the Bears’ first week running a new system built around Fields’ rushing abilities. The offense looked good. The offensive line and running backs were excellent in picking up their blocks. The receivers spaced the field. The play calling was perfect. There is a good reason to believe that this offense could be even more dynamic this week.
Fields crossed the 100 yard threshold on 18 carries last week. Only five of those carries were scrambles. Pro Football Focus categorized the other 13 as designed runs. It feels different this time. Furthermore, Fields is a work in progress. He’s young and misses reads. He fails to spot open receivers. This leads to more scrambles. That’s not great for the cover, but it’s good for the prop.
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