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NFL Betting Systems for Week 12: Football Picks, Best Bets, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Nick Friar examines the best betting systems that are in play for Week 12 of the NFL season.

Philadelphia Eagles v Kansas City Chiefs Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images

With this article, I’m highlighting the new Systems feature available in DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub. Getting this one out a little early this week for the holiday. The first of the two systems I’m highlighting applies to some of Thursday’s action, as well as Friday’s game.

Be sure to check out the Systems feature for yourself to find appealing systems in play this week!

Speaking of new DraftKings Sportsbook tools, customers can now utilize the new Search function on the DraftKings Sportsbook app to find DK Network articles and bets — all in one place!

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.


System: Under on total when home team is the underdog

It’s been a little big since we went through this system here. Back in Week 9, there were two games that applied to this play (NYJ-LAC and CAR-IND), and they both came through. In Week 10, this play only went 3-3, but Week 11 was a nice bounce-back spot for this play (2-0).

Even with that .500 result in Week 10, this play is 12-7 over the last four weeks. That’s helped boost the hit rate of this play to 62.9% on the season (39-23). For those wondering, this play had a hit rate of 62.79% before Week 8, so the boost wasn’t significant. But there’s nothing wrong with consistency.

This system applies to a whopping seven games this week:

  • SEA vs. SF (Thursday)
  • NYJ vs. MIA (Friday)
  • HOU vs. JAX
  • NYG vs. NE
  • CIN vs. PIT
  • LV vs. KC
  • LAC vs. BAL

SEA-SF and NYJ-MIA both get the nod this week. On top of our larger system that’s in play, we’ve also got the prime-time under system in play for those two games (27-9 to the under this season).

Some other notes around those two games:

  • SEA is 3-0 to the under in divisional games this season.
  • SF is 2-3 to the under when playing as a road favorite this season.
  • NYJ is 3-0 to the under in divisional games this season.
  • MIA is 2-0 to the under when playing as a road favorite this season.

When it comes to Sunday, there are five games that fit this system. Six of the 10 teams taking part in those games are 7-3 to the under or better. Of the bunch, JAX and CIN are the only teams that aren’t over .500 to the under (both are 5-5).

I’m looking forward to some of these rock fights, but KC-LV gets top billing of this group. They have the second-highest number of the bunch at 43 (trailing only LAC-BAL’s 47) despite LV being the best team to the under at 9-2 and KC being right behind them at 8-2. But, I genuinely think all of these are playable.


System: NFC ATS in non-conference games

Similar to home underdogs ATS last week, this is a play that’s been trending but the system itself hasn’t hit 50% of the time this season. Over the last four weeks, this play has had a huge spike, going 14-8-2. But even that success only has the play at 26-27-4 on the season.

Here are the games this system applies to:

  • CAR +3.5 @ TEN
  • NYG +3.5 vs. NE
  • TB +2.5 @ IND
  • PHI -3.5 vs. BUF

One of these is not like the other, and that’s precisely where I’m going. My preferred play here is PHI -3.5. NFC favorites are 5-2-1 ATS against AFC teams over the last four weeks. Philly is also 3-1 ATS against AFC teams this year, whereas the Bills are 1-2 ATS against NFC teams and a brutal 4-7 ATS overall this season.


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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.


The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.