Can’t believe it, but the final week of regular season college football is here. It’s rivalry week too, which adds a whole new element. There are a lot of moving parts in the college football landscape this week, but home home dogs do standout to me, especially in these rivalry games. Let’s rip through some CFB betting angles on DraftKings Sportsbook.
I’ll have some other plays later in the week for at least one team total, but the Ohio State/Michigan game is not on my card below. That’s because this game is essentially for the Big Ten Championship — I have a Wolverines (+210) ticket from preseason, so I’ll just be rooting that one home. If you haven’t bet it, would lean laying points with Michigan there.
My 2023 college football betting record entering Week 13 is 52-37-1 (+14.93-units).
Florida State at Florida (Saturday 7:00 pm ET)
Florida +6.5 (-110) — 2-units
This is a wild game to handicap, as both teams will be without their starting quarterbacks for this game. The big news nationally is the injury to Jordan Travis, and what it means for FSU’s College Football Playoff hopes. The Knowles are two wins away from going 13-0 and reaching the CFP, but if they struggle in these two games will they still make it? If they lose one they are certainly out without Travis.
Meanwhile, the Gators care about none of this. Graham Mertz will be done for the season, but Max Brown looked solid in relief in a tough road atmosphere — a game the Gators almost stole at Missouri. Florida just played two tough road games against top-15 teams, and also had a shocking loss in their last game at the swamp to Arkansas in OT.
Here’s a chance to bounce-back at home, where prior to the loss to the Hogs, the Gators had won nine of their last 10. Florida went on the road to FSU last year and dropped this game by just seven points with Travis healthy, and actually won this matchup at The Swamp two years ago.
There should be a ton of pressure on FSU in this spot to prove they are still CFP-worthy, while the five-win Gators are playing for Bowl eligibility. Think Florida is live to win this one.
Clemson at South Carolina (Saturday 7:30 pm ET)
South Carolina +7 (-110) — 2-units
South Carolina went of the road for this one last year and stunned a highly-ranked Clemson team 31-30 in this rivalry. While the Tigers certainly have revenge on their minds, let’s remember this is a much worse team than last year.
Clemson has quieted some of the noise about their poor season with a three-game winning streak, but all those games were at home. Prior to the win streak, Clemson was coming off road losses as favorites to Miami and NC State — dropping it to 1-3 SU/ATS on the road this season.
While the schedule for the Gamecocks has been soft, they are on a three-game winning streak, and just earned a tough one over Kentucky. Expect SC to get up for this game at home in a big way, and this will be an atmosphere that Clemson typically struggles in.
UNC at NC State (Saturday 8:00 pm ET)
NC State +2 (-110) — 2-units
These two rivals both sit at 8-3 on the season, but are going in completely opposite directions. UNC had a path opening up for them to win double-digit games and have a sniff at an ACC Title. Then the Tar Heels promptly lost three of five games, going 1-4 ATS, including two losses as double-digit favorites.
Of the two wins, one was by two-points over Duke, failing to cover as double-digit favorites, and the other way over Campbell. The defense has been dreadful on a weekly basis, most notably giving up 45 to Duke on a third string QB. UNC hasn’t been tested much on the road, but is 1-2 SU/ATS, coming off the road loss to Clemson last week, and will now play its first consecutive road games of the season.
Meanwhile, NC State got off to a slower start to the season, but never really had a bad loss — Notre Dame, Louisville and Duke when the Blue Devils were still at full strength. Since the Duke loss, the Wolfpack are 4-0 SU/ATS, winning all really tough games — three outright wins as underdogs (Clemson, Miami, VA Tech) and one as a slight favorite (Wake Forest).
The Wolfpack have matched up well with the Heels in recent season, winning by four at home two years and and stealing one by three in overtime on the road last year.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.