The tool allows us to toggle the tease total to see how a play has performed against various numbers, but I’ll be sticking to the default of 4 points to ensure -110 odds.
Philadelphia teased to -5 can easily jump out as the appealing play initially. The Raptors are coming off a huge win vs. Milwaukee, but they are playing on the second leg of a back-to-back. This is also Toronto’s third game in four days. The 76ers have also covered four-point teasers in each of their last nine divisional games.
But, as we discussed last week when we teased Philly to +10, teams generally don’t lose by double digits. Last season, teams playing on the second leg of a back-to-back lost by 12 or fewer (or won) 77.6% of the time (311-78-12). The Raptors themselves were slightly below average, but a 75% success rate is still plenty good enough.
Furthermore, the 76ers only won by 14-plus one time in this setting last season.
Yep, we’re going with a pair of teams that are on the second leg of a back-to-back. Orlando did a great job of covering when their opponent was playing on no rest last season, going 10-4 ATS in this setting and 3-0 ATS when favored.
However, Utah experienced similar success when playing on the second leg of a back-to-back, going 10-4-1 ATS and 8-1-1 ATS as the dog. Zoom in a little more and we find that the Jazz also went 3-0-1 ATS when playing as a dog on the second leg of a back-to-back following a win.
On top of all that, the Jazz have covered a four-point teaser at home against the Magic in their last six meetings. Also, if the Magic played as a five-point favorite every time their opponent was on the second leg of a back-to-back last season, they’d have gone 5-8-1 ATS.
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.