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There’s a new Teaser tool in the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub. Check it out to make your own Teaser plays for NBA and NFL games.
The tool allows us to toggle the tease total to see how a play has performed against various numbers, but I’ll be sticking to the default of 4 points to ensure -110 odds.
TOR +13
Philadelphia teased to -5 can easily jump out as the appealing play initially. The Raptors are coming off a huge win vs. Milwaukee, but they are playing on the second leg of a back-to-back. This is also Toronto’s third game in four days. The 76ers have also covered four-point teasers in each of their last nine divisional games.
But, as we discussed last week when we teased Philly to +10, teams generally don’t lose by double digits. Last season, teams playing on the second leg of a back-to-back lost by 12 or fewer (or won) 77.6% of the time (311-78-12). The Raptors themselves were slightly below average, but a 75% success rate is still plenty good enough.
Furthermore, the 76ers only won by 14-plus one time in this setting last season.
UTA +5
Yep, we’re going with a pair of teams that are on the second leg of a back-to-back. Orlando did a great job of covering when their opponent was playing on no rest last season, going 10-4 ATS in this setting and 3-0 ATS when favored.
However, Utah experienced similar success when playing on the second leg of a back-to-back, going 10-4-1 ATS and 8-1-1 ATS as the dog. Zoom in a little more and we find that the Jazz also went 3-0-1 ATS when playing as a dog on the second leg of a back-to-back following a win.
On top of all that, the Jazz have covered a four-point teaser at home against the Magic in their last six meetings. Also, if the Magic played as a five-point favorite every time their opponent was on the second leg of a back-to-back last season, they’d have gone 5-8-1 ATS.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.