We’re heading down the home stretch of the CFB season, and while we still have many exciting games ahead, this is one of the quieter betting cards in my mind in terms of volume. That said, there will be one of my favorite plays of the season on the night slate, so I’m excited for that one. Let’s rip through some CFB betting angles on DraftKings Sportsbook.
My 2023 college football betting record entering Week 12 is 50-35-1 (+17.83-units).
Louisville at Miami (Saturday 12:00 pm ET)
Louisville ML (-110) — 1-unit
Louisville opened a favorite here, and the Miami money hasn’t stopped all week. We’re down to a pick, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Cardinals closed a dog. Obviously, not the best of spots here going down to Miami for a late season game with a spot in the ACC Championship game all but locked in. Louisville still likely faces FSU even if it loses, by why even take the chance?
I expect Louisville to come out and play well in this spot. The Cards just took a scare from a bad Virginia team, but have had a long week to prep for this one. Meanwhile, Miami put a lot of focus on FSU last week, covering, but coming up short in the game. I think we’re putting too much stock into the Hurricanes’ performance in that FSU game, giving us a good price on the Cardinals. With advantages on both sides of the ball and the coaching department, I’ll take Louisville.
UCLA at USC (Saturday 3:30 pm ET)
UNDER 65.5 (-110) — 1-unit
In some senses, this is a brave under, with USC now 9-2 to the over this season. However, one of those unders came last week against one of the best defenses in the PAC-12 in Oregon, while also going up against one of the best offenses.
UCLA has bogged games down all season, hence their 2-8 record to the over. In face, the Bruins have only topped 65 points in a game once this season, and it was when they scored 59 on their own against NC Central back in September.
In seven PAC-12 games this season, UCLA games have actually averaged an absurd 39.5 points per game. As good as USC can be on offense and as bad as they can be on defense, I think UCLA is the perfect matchup to counter both of those matchups. The UCLA offenses has been dreadful of late, and should try and grind clock. And the defense should be good enough to at least slow Caleb Williams and company.
With Chip Kelly on the hot season (and maybe fired after this game if you believe reports), look for UCLA to attempt to make this one a grind.
Washington at Oregon State (Saturday 7:30 pm ET)
Oregon State ML (-130) — 3-units
This is the game I’ve been waiting for, not just this week, but for a good chunk of the season. Let me start with this — I really like this Washington team, and bet a lot of their futures in the preseason. Props to the Huskies for already cashing their win total. However, this is the spot I think they slip up, before still heading to Las Vegas at 11-1 for the PAC-12 Championship Game.
Washington undoubtably has the advantage on offense, specifically in the passing game. But I think the Beavers will be able to put some pressure on that passing attack, and then have a lot of other advantages out on the field.
This is going to be a very tough road atmosphere for Michael Penix Jr. and the Huskies. Oregon State is 17-1 at home over the last three seasons, and that one loss was last season by three points to USC — holding Caleb Williams in his Heisman season to 17 points. This team just plays fantastic in Corvallis, so don’t think for a second the buzz in the stadium won’t be electric with a 10-0 team coming to town for a Saturday night game.
Oregon State runs the ball very well with Damien Martinez, and should be able to attempt to keep the offense of the Huskies off the field, while also playing to one of the Beavers’ strengths.
Let’s go Beavs!
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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