After we plugged our noses and battled through Panthers and Bears last Thursday night, we get rewarded this week with a terrific AFC North showdown. The Bengals travel to Baltimore for a big TNF matchup, particularly with both these teams coming off shocking upset losses at home last week.
Let’s take a look at some betting angles on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Ravens -3 (-120) or better
Baltimore still sits as a 3.5-point home favorite, but the juice is coming down a bit. If I can get this one down to -3 I’ll take advantage, and obviously lean that way if you’re comfortable laying 3.5.
Short week on the road for Cincy, and while both teams are desperate for a win following those shocking losses on Sunday, the matchup favors the Ravens. Baltimore earned a three-point victory in Cincy earlier in the year, and did so by attacking the Bengals’ weaknesses on defense.
Cincy is dreadful defending the run, allowing 136.2 rushing yards per game (30th in NFL), and that number jumps to 158.5 allowed in road games. The Bengals also rank 25th in the NFL in passing yards allowed, and that number has been growing weekly due to their slip in play. The Bengals gave up 356 through the air last week, which makes them the worst passing defense in the league over the last three weeks — 317.3 per game.
Baltimore has the edge as home here.
Keaton Mitchell Longest Rush OVER 13.5 Yards (-135) — 0.75-units
The rookie hasn’t touched it much this season (12-172-2), but when he does, he rips off big plays. Mitchell is averaging over 14 yards per carry, so you can absolutely interest me in a long carry prop that’s floating around his average YPC. He’s gotten all his touches in the last two games, with long runs in those games of 60 and 39 yards. Expect him to be more involved in Baltimore’s game plan given his recent success, and we already covered Cincy’s 30th-ranked rush defense that gives up over 158 per game on the road.
SGP (+650) — 0.3-units
Combining most of the analysis above and hoping Mitchell rips off a long TD in the win to cash us this one.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.